NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today

Allan Smith
Business Insider

If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.

Donald Trump. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Donald Trump. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

That’s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Mondayfor his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.

In his “Now-cast” election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation’s highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.

Silver’s model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver’s model.

It’s the first time in Silver’s “Now-cast” forecast that Trump has been projected to win.

However, in Silver’s polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were — hovering around 80%.

Silver raised eyebrows Friday on Twitter when he pointed out “how plausible it is that Trump could become president.”

Trump has received a bump in the polls since the Republican National Convention in Cleveland wrapped up last week. He jumped ahead of Clinton in a set of new surveys released Monday.

In the RealClearPolitics average of several polls, Trump pulled ahead of Clinton by 0.2 points on the back of four consecutive polls showing him ahead of the former secretary of state. It’s the second time in the entire election cycle that Trump has led Clinton in the coveted polling average.

SEE ALSO: Donald Trump scores post-convention bump in polls, takes lead over Hillary Clinton

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