Why Marco Rubio could upend 2016’s US presidential election
US presidential campaigns are heavily shaped by biography and charisma — he has both
Edward Luce
FT.com
©Matt Kenyon
Bush or Clinton? Two devils you know. For years people have discounted America’s next presidential choice. Yet Marco Rubio, the 44-year-old Cuban-American from Florida, is rattling assumptions. Those who say the US would never choose a first-term senator over more experienced rivals have forgotten Barack Obama. Those who believe a minority candidate would have trouble winning the Republican nomination may be equally deluded. Conventional wisdom is unshakeable until it is proved wrong. No US politician today is better positioned to do so than Mr Rubio.
There is no need to take my word for it: read the signals from the Hillary and Jeb campaigns. In her first big speech since declaring, Mrs Clinton last week trained her sights on Mr Rubio, rather than Mr Bush, a clear sign of whom she most fears. But she did so awkwardly. Two months after Mr Rubio launched his bid with a speech that referred to Mrs Clinton as the candidate of “yesterday”, the former first lady quoted the eponymous Beatles song in an attempt to rebut the Miami upstart. It was not her best oratory. The Beatles broke up before Mr Rubio was born. Mrs Clinton did not take any sideswipes at Mr Bush.
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In his own launch last week, Mr Bush did take an obligatory swing at Mrs Clinton. But his mind was clearly on Mr Rubio. The former governor of Florida, who also staged his launch in Miami, was introduced as “the Florida Republican who can win”. There was no point in “electing the people who either helped create [a broken Washington] or have proven incapable of fixing it”, said Mr Bush. His remark incorporated Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, the two other senators who are running. Unlike Mr Rubio, neither is in the first rank of Republican hopefuls. Scott Walker, the other Republican frontrunner (polls confine the premier league to him, Mr Bush and Mr Rubio), last week said he would choose Mr Rubio as his running mate. What better way to sideline your chief rival?
White House campaigns are heavily shaped by biography and charisma. Mr Rubio has a potent mix of both. His personal story could hardly be further removed from that of Mrs Clinton and Mr Bush. If their tales symbolise dynasty, Mr Rubio’s is from Horatio Alger. To his followers, he personifies the American dream. The son of immigrants, Mr Rubio’s father was a full-time bartender while his mother worked variously as a cleaner, a cashier and a chain store stock clerk. Audiences never tire of hearing Mr Rubio’s line about his father tending bar at the back of the ballroom “so that one day his son could stand at a podium in the front”.
Both Mrs Clinton and Mr Bush show a detailed grasp of the crisis besetting America’s middle class — the uber-theme of next year’s election. Mr Rubio has direct experience of it. Between the Bush and Clinton campaigns there is an unspoken assumption that the other would cancel out their plutocratic vulnerabilities. Mr Rubio will exploit both to the hilt. Then there is the age gap. At a time of cynicism about the brokenness of US politics, brand fatigue is a problem. Youth comes at a premium. So do movie star looks. “Yesterday is over,” says Mr Rubio. “We must change the decisions we are making by changing the people who are making them.”
The headline polls may understate Mr Rubio’s advantage. Alone among candidates on either side, he has positive favourability among Republican and Democratic voters. At 57 per cent among Republican primary voters he is way ahead of Mr Bush (37 per cent). Although Mr Bush leads marginally in voters’ first preference, Mr Rubio tops the second choice rankings. In a fragmented field, that could count for a lot. Finally, Mr Rubio is neck and neck with Mr Bush in the key swing states, including Ohio and Florida, and comes closest of any Republican to defeating Mrs Clinton in a head-to-head matchup.
“Even his weaknesses can be turned to his advantage, primarily a tendency to bend with the wind
”
If all this seems too good to be true, it probably is. Mr Rubio has a fraction the executive record of either Mr Bush or Mrs Clinton and would probably flounder, Obama-style, in his first years in office. Choosing a president “without training wheels”, as Mr Bush suggests, might sink a bid if the poll were held in Washington. But it worries ordinary voters less.
Mr Rubio’s weaknesses can also be turned to his advantage. Foremost is a tendency to bend with the wind. Two years ago, he sounded almost centrist on foreign policy. Today he vows to undo Mr Obama’s alleged appeasement of America’s foes, chiefly Iran and Cuba. Likewise, he once stood out as progressive on immigration (how could he not?). Today he sounds as hardline as the rest of the Republican field.
Mr Bush has stuck to his principles. Yet veering to the right for the primaries and tacking back to the centre for the general election is an essential skill. It is hard to imagine Mr Cruz or Mr Walker convincing mainstream voters that they were only joking. It is also becoming harder to foresee Republican primary voters endorsing Mr Bush; which leaves Mr Rubio.
Mrs Clinton may be wise to target him rather than Mr Bush. She of all people knows that the candidate who can best sing “Tomorrow” is capable of changing the game.