Uptick in Small Earthquakes Stirs Fears in New York Area
Some geologists predict a large-scale earthquake could be coming
By HEATHER HADDON
The Wall Street Journal
A cluster of low-magnitude earthquakes in the New York region has piqued the interest of residents, while some geologists predict the increase in temblors will continue and a large-scale one could be coming.
The seven earthquakes that hit the region during the first two months of the year already surpass the five that occurred in all of last year, according to a review of U.S. Geological Survey data. Each of the recent earthquakes registered a magnitude 2.0 or below, the data show.
Six of this year’s area earthquakes occurred in a swath of northern New Jersey. The earthquakes—including three the weekend of Feb. 20—were strong enough to prompt residents to flood local emergency-service operators with inquiries.
Alexander Gates, a geologist at Rutgers University who has analyzed historical earthquake trends in the New York area over the decades, said the region is on pace for more earthquakes.
“We are overdue,” Dr. Gates said. “Sooner or later we are going to get a big one.”
The New Jersey Office of Emergency Management has used social media to urge the public to remain calm after the earthquakes, and the public is encouraged to have a readiness kit in the event of any natural disaster, said Laura Connolly, an agency spokeswoman.
‘Sooner or later we are going to get a big one.’
Earthquakes are included in New Jersey’s hazard mitigation plan that is updated every five years, with risk assessed by region and its type of rock. Still, the risk of earthquake damage in New Jersey is low, Ms. Connolly said.
“It’s not like California,” she said.
This month, the Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences at Rutgers plans to publish its findings chronicling the increase in the region’s earthquake activity in the late 1970s, a subsequent drop-off and the rise more recently
Earthquakes tend to come in cycles, and activity in the region started growing in 2001, the department’s analysis found.
To be sure, geologists and other earthquake experts have long warned about the possibility for a significant earthquake in the region. Damaging earthquakes hit the region in 1737 and 1884, the latter registering a magnitude 5.5, according to the Geological Survey.
Centered in the Jamaica Bay, the 1884 earthquake caused walls to collapse, chimneys to crack and buildings to sway in the tri-state area, according to news accounts at the time.
Paul Earle, a seismologist with the Geological Survey’s National Earthquake Information Center, said that more sophisticated monitoring devices likely account for some increase in the detected earthquakes regionally in recent years.
On Feb. 21, the police department in Butler, N.J., received about 1,000 calls and Facebook messages after a 1.1 magnitude earthquake hit the region.
“We were just as much in awe as was the public,” said Ciro Chimento, the police chief and a longtime resident. “There’s never been anything that’s been reported to this degree.”
ENLARGEEarthquakes that have hit the region are much closer to the earth’s surface than those out West, allowing them to be felt despite their small magnitude, scientists said.
This year’s earthquakes didn’t result in any reported injuries or property damage in Morris County, N.J., where the biggest ones were concentrated, according to the county’s office of emergency management.
Residents reported a loud boom and felt some slight tremors, triggering curiosity more than panic, Mr. Chimento said.
Most earthquakes occur at the dozens of tectonic fault lines that line the earth’s crust. As two plates along a fault line shift, energy is released that triggers tremors at the earth’s surface.
Earthquake activity in the U.S. has traditionally been focused around the San Andreas fault in California, the source of numerous catastrophic temblors over the years. Researchers are also examining an area of activity along a tectonic boundary in the Pacific Northwest that could trigger major earthquakes in the future.
The New York region’s most significant fault is the 185-mile Ramapo line, which spans parts of Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and the Catskills in New York. Scientists have studied fault lines far more in the West than ones in the East, which tend to be less clearly defined, smaller and deeply buried, according to researchers.
Recent research has found that a sizable earthquake should be expected in the area every 100 years or so and its danger level depends on where it hits, said Won-Young Kim, a professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Cooperative Seismographic Network.
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Earthquake insurance is an optional part of homeowner’s coverage in the region. In New Jersey, few property owners have earthquake insurance, according to the state Department of Banking and Insurance.
People living in North Jersey areas that are experiencing more seismic activity are encouraged to talk to their insurance agent about options, said Christine O’Brien, president of the Insurance Council of New Jersey.
“Now is the time to look at this when it’s quiet,” she said.
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Uptick in Small Earthquakes Stirs Fears in New York Area – WSJ