And you can’t blame him. But what about the fella in the shirt?

A suporter of Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz at a caucus night gathering in Las Vegas, Nevada  Photo: Getty Images

Rather more somber mood among Ted Cruz supporters. We are waiting to hear from him. Rather lengthy introduction from Glenn Beck, the conservative TV talk show host, holding things up.

Still only 10% of votes counted, but what a stunning result this is looking to be:

1. Donald Trump 45.03%
2. Marco Rubio 24.32%
3. Ted Cruz 20.38%
4. Ben Carson 5.93%
5. John Kasich 4.04%

Donald Trump supporters react as a television network projects Trump the winner during a Nevada caucus night watch party  Photo: Getty Images

“It’s going to be an amazing two months,” continues Mr Trump. “We might not even need the two months, folks.”

Which is what many in the party fear. And then he had a dig at all the pundits who will begin wondering whether the rest of the establishment candidates can club together to stop him.

Tomorrow you’re going to be hearing, if you could just take the other candidates and add them up…

They keep forgetting that when people drop out, we’re going to get a lot of votes

OK. I’m going to say it. Whatever you think of the guy, he has a great sense of humour. Listing all the next states that are coming up – Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, Florida – he describes the great numbers he has in the polls before a gentle dig at John Kasich, governor of Ohio, where Mr Trump is well ahead.

It’s always nice to be beating the governor.

Donald Trump is speaking now

We will be celebrating for a long time tonight… We weren’t expected to win this won, you know that right?

If you listened to the pundits we were not expected to win anything and now we’re winning, winning winning. And soon America will be winning, winning, winning.

Nick Allen has been speaking to Elvis impersonator Paige Poole, 54, who has met Mr Trump and hopes to sing at his inauguration.

I met Donald last night. He calls me his Las Vegas Elvis. I asked if I could sing at his inauguration.

I like him because he speaks his mind. He’s like me. This is America and you should be able to speak your mind.

I’ve lost friends because I’m supporting Trump, I’ve had people tell me I’ll lose gigs over it but I don’t care.”

Leading Right-wing website thinks it can see where this ends. And it is hard to dispute that now, with Donald Trump looking at a win by 17 percentage points (although no doubt that number changes as the votes are counted).

Marco Rubio supporter Mike Richardson outside Durango High School where voters were caucusing in Las Vegas, Nevada   Photo: AFP

Whatever way they spin this, the result is bad, bad news for Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

Mr Cruz, in particular, needed a good result after a poor third place in South Carolina. A Cuban-American, it looks as if he lost Latino voters to Donald Trump and couldn’t even poll well among his core evangelical support.

Mr Rubio was in better shape coming into Nevada. He will be hoping to mop up support now that Jeb Bush is out of race. But unlike Mr Cruz, who won Iowa, he has managed a first place yet. How long can he maintain a credible challenge without a win?

Nick Allen has reaction from the Trump victory rally in the Treasure Island hotel:

There was a huge queue to get into Mr Trump’s viewing party in a hotel ballroom. “This is soooo exciting,” screamed one teenage girl.

Most supporters hadn’t made it inside by 9pm when the caucuses officially closed. CNN called the result or Mr Trump seconds later. A big roar went up from those who had made it into the ballroom.

The man next to me, wearing a camouflage Make America Great Again hat, began shouting “Trump, Trump, Trump” for so long I thought he was never going to stop.

There were big boos when Ted Cruz’s name was mentioned on a big screen showing CNN. The Trump supporters hate Mr Cruz almost as much as they love their man. When Marco Rubio appeared to be pulling away from Mr Cruz in second place they cheered.

When a pundit on CNN described Trump supporters as “angry” they also cheered loudly. One of the biggest cheers came when it emerged Mr Trump had easily won the Latino vote over Mr Rubio and Mr Cruz, both of whom are Cuban-Americans.

Early days with less than 4% of the votes counted so far:

1. Donald Trump: 42.92%
2. Marco Rubio: 25.22%
3. Ted Cruz: 20.40%
4. Ben Carson: 7.23%
5. John Kasich: 3.98%

(I’m starting to understand why Mr Kasich is long gone and Mr Rubio was in Michigan today)

So this is part of the reason why he won – if the entrance poll is correct. And bodes badly for Messrs Cruz and Rubio as we carry on into Super Tuesday.

Can anyone stop him now?  Photo: AFP

TV networks and the Associated Press say Donald Trump has won Nevada caucus. This is now his third victory in a row – after losing Iowa – and he has shredded all the conventional thinking. His record of wins in Iowa, South Carolina and now Nevada puts him right up there with candidates like Mitt Romney who won the nomination and Ronald Reagan, who went all the way to the White House.

Although tonight won’t yield a lot of delegates, it gives him all the headlines and all the momentum The next big date is March 1 – Super Tuesday. After that it might be all over.

With caucuses now closed, network says Marco Rubio is leading Ted Cruz in the race for second.

This from CNN, which has the results from Centennial High School in Las Vegas, where 40 precincts caucused:

1. Donald Trump: 44%
2. Ted Cruz: 31%
3. Marco Rubio: 14%
4. John Kasich: 7%

But still a long, long way to go

This is in Clark county, where caucusing finished half an hour before the rest of the state. Twelve minutes or so to go elsewhere.

Remember when this was useful in forecasting Ted Cruz’s win in Iowa? Suggests things might be looking good for the caucus neophytes that are supporting Donald Trump.

Nick Allen has been speaking to more Trump-supporting election volunteers:

At Bonanza High School several of the volunteers collecting the votes were wearing Trump regalia. One had on a badge which said: “Trump – Victory Night”. The volunteers had been to Mr Trump’s rally last night. I’m sure it won’t affect their counting of the votes but it doesn’t look great if you’re Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz. The volunteers said they’d had “thousands” of people coming through. Looks like a big turn out, which is good for Mr Trump.

It’s like groupies trying to get backstage after a Motley Crue gig.

Among early arrivals at Nevada’s Republican caucuses, nearly 6 in 10 say they are angry at the way the government is working. Entrance polls conducted as people arrived at caucus locations in Nevada show another third saying they are dissatisfied with the government.

Those early arrivals are most likely to say the top issues facing the country are the economy or government spending, each listed by about 3 in 10. Immigration and terrorism were each chosen by slightly fewer – about 2 in 10.

The survey was being conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks by Edison Research as Republican voters arrive at 25 randomly selected caucus sites in Nevada. The preliminary results include interviews with 925 Republican caucus-goers and have a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Voters line up for a Republican caucus at Durango High School in Las Vegas, Nevada  Photo: Getty Images

So this has to be the most bizarre way of collating results. Could any tech experts tell me if this is more tamper proof than other methods?

Esssentially, volunteers at tonight’s 36 caucus sites will tally the votes by hand. Then – get this – write the totals on an envelope before taking a photograph of said envelope and texting it to state party officials. For clarification, this is what Ed Williams, Clark County Republican Party chairman, told The Wall Street Journal:

The official number will be whatever is photographed.

Until caucusing ends.

Nick Allen writes:

At a caucus site, Norman Johnson, 59, an anti-Trump protester, says he’d like to challenge the billionaire to a duel on Fifth Avenue.

He says: “I don’t like him. Who wants a president whose going to play games with your Constitution?”

How does he do it? MSNBC was broadcasting live from a caucus site at Palo Verde High School in Summerlin, where Glenn Beck, the conservative talk show host, was talking on behalf of Ted Cruz. Until that is Donald Trump turned up and hijacked it, stepping up his war of words with Mr Cruz.

Nick Allen is at Durango High School where a volunteer collecting the votes is wearing a Trump badge, and another has on a Trump hat:

At Durango High School voters register with a photo ID and collect their ballot paper. It still has the names of Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum (remember him) on it…

They then fill it out and give it to a man wearing a Trump badge who puts it an envelope. A volunteer next to him is collecting votes in some other envelopes. She is wearing a Trump hat.

The male volunteer explains to me: “At the end I take the votes out of the envelope and count them. It’s OK there are two witnesses.” Presumably that may include the woman in the Trump hat. So, all seems independent and fair.

Twitter is abuzz with examples of caucus officials wearing Donald Trump paraphernalia.

But apparently it is not against any rules…

As Nevada Republicans caucus across the state, the Republican National Committee says it is concerned about reports of double voting at a troubled caucus site in Las Vegas.

Fred Brown, RNC spokesman, acknowledges there have been reports of double voting, long lines and not enough ballots at Palo Verde High School. Some people were being turned away and directed to another location.

Donald Trump stopped by the school as part of his last-minute campaigning.

Mr Brown says the double-voting problem appears to be limited to one part of a caucus site where different precincts have been combined. The party plans to compare the number of paper ballots cast to the sign-in sheet to determine whether any double voting actually occurred.

Other caucus sites appear to be running smoothly with no reports of difficulty.

Nick Allen, in Las Vegas for us, says some Republicans don’t like any of the choices on offer:

Elliott Adams, 69, a former paratrooper and veteran of Vietnam and Korea, said:

I’m a Republican and I’m saddened by what I see in the Republican Party today.

A lot of the candidates are kind of screwballs. The party rode the tiger of the Tea Party and the evangelical right and now they’re getting eaten.

I’m very concerned by the hate speech, the politics of hate and fear, the violation of the First Amendment that protects freedom of religion, this hatred of Muslims and xenophobia. America was founded as the great melting pot.

Lots of pictures of long queues and reports of chaos. The question is whether this means a big turnout – with all the implications that might have for the result – or whether it is a reflection of GOP incompetence in Nevada.

Marco Rubio holds a campaign rally at Lacks Enterprises in Grand Rapids, Michigan on Tuesday  Photo: Getty

With two weeks to go to the Michigan primary, Marco Rubio told an audience there that Republicans must win the presidency and the GOP race “cannot be about just making a point.” In an apparent shot at Donald Trump, Mr Rubio told a crowd of more than 1,000 that he himself didn’t become a conservative when he thought about running for president.

He said he would rebuild a “gutted” US military but de-emphasise the federal government’s role in other matters, leaving those issues to state and local governments.

Mr Rubio has framed the 2016 election as a “generational choice” and told his Michigan audience that it’s time for “our generation to rise up and do our part”.

Apparently running short of ballots because there’s soooo many Trump supporters. Post all videos folks. Take pics! pic.twitter.com/0agcIobSS9

— Campaign Trump (@LandmanMarius) February 24, 2016

Fearing problems and dirty tricks, reports have circulated of some campaigners urging others to video caucuses in order to record abuses. Just one problem, voters are prohibited from recording at caucus sites, as this statement from the Nevada Republican Party makes clear:

In light of recent events, regarding instructions for supporters to record and report suspicious conduct in today’s caucus, the Nevada Republican Party affirms that members of the general public may observe the caucusing process and encourages any individual who observes any suspicious conduct to immediately notify precinct and/or party leaders

However, no member of the general public shall be permitted to photograph, film or otherwise record the caucusing process.

Previous Republican caucuses have been at times shambolic, giving Nevada’s GOP election events a reputation for chaos. Last year the state legislature even tried to change it to a primary – but failed. It’s early, but already plenty of reports of disarray.

After previously using a Monty Python character (Brave Sir Robin) to ridicule Donald Trump, this time Ted Cruz uses the Scottish character (shall we say) from the Austin Powers films.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Las Vegas  Photo: AP Photo/John Locher

Donald Trump – if he can win Nevada, on what may not be a very high turn-out, then is there any stopping the Donald? But he has done nothing to manage expectations (as usual). Even a narrow win would look a poor result

Marco Rubio – this is the first post-Bush contest, which could help him. A well placed second might turn his 3-5-2-2 strategy into a work of genius. It would then all be about MarcoMentum. And could he even win tonight?

Ted Cruz – needs a good result after getting knocked off his stride in South Carolina. And that probably means getting as close as possible to Marco Rubio before looking ahead to Texas

John Kasich – He’s already moved on to Georgia as part of a Veep effort. Result tonight is meaningless, whatever happens

Ben Carson – Hasn’t campaigned much and has no turn-out operation. Difficult to see what the retired neurosurgeon is running for now

Rather wish I was there, rather than my office in Brooklyn with rain outside my window.

Members of the Culinary Union are protesting in front of Trump Hotel Las Vegas.

The union wants to represent the hotel’s workers, but the hotel is objecting to a recent union vote.

Culinary officials say the hotel’s management wants to draw the matter out in a lengthy legal battle, and point out that Mr Trump made a deal with his employees in Canada.

The union hasn’t endorsed anyone in the election so far…

So we are under way in Nevada. Meanwhile, CNN is holding a Democratic town hall with Bernie Sanders (speaking now) and Hillary Clinton. You can watch it here.

It’s all a bit complicated tonight. If I have understood correctly, caucusing begins at 17:00 PT time in a number of counties – that’s in about 20 minutes. Other counties follow later.

The process is expected to take an hour at each location. But all must be finished by 21:00.

Results thereafter.

Ted Cruz was on Fox News to discuss a range of subjects. During which he clarified his position on immigration by biting on Bill O’Reilly’s question about hunting down Tommy O’Malley. The exchange comes at 3’25”

“So Tommy O’Malley from Co Cork in Ireland is over here and he overstays his visa and he has got a couple of kids and he has settled into Long Island, and you, President Cruz, are going to send the Feds to his house, take him out and put him on a plane back to Ireland?” asked O’Reilly.

“You better believe it,” said Mr Cruz. “Right now, we actually can’t do that because we don’t have a biometric exit-entry system so we don’t know when, in your example, Tommy goes home.”

Cue mock Irish outrage

In hard numerical terms, perhaps not a lot. Nevada has 30 delegates, which are divided between candidates proportionally. So by the end of the night, the winner may only have a net gain on his rivals of one or two delegates – out of 2472 in total, who will make the nomination.

So tonight is all about momentum. And crucially, Nevada represents the first test of the Hispanic vote.

Vegas Elvis in case you need to narrow it down by period.

Donald Trump’s wife Melania is giving her first solo interview of the campaign, to be broadcast on MSNBC tomorrow morning. I don’t think that is their studio.

In Britain we get exercised when a politician is pictured with two kitchens. In America no one cares how much gilding you have.

Conventional wisdom is that high turn-out is good for the outsider candidates, the Trumps and Sanderses, who need first-time voters and the newly enthused.

Overall turn-out in a Nevada Republican caucus is excuciatingly low as a proportion of total voters. In 2008, the numbers were about 45k and in 2012 they were about 30k.

If all 37k vote then that will be a pretty big turnout for the state.

But in 2008 and 2012 the caucus was on a Saturday. What happens on a Tuesday? When NCIS is on telly?

It’s Rob here now. And earlier my colleague David Lawler suggested it would be a shock if Donald Trump did not win. I’m not convinced. And here’s why.

1. Nevada caucuses are notoriously difficult to predict
2. There have not been many polls – and the most recent was a week ago
3. In previous contests, the Trump vote has slipped in the final days
4. And with Jeb Bush gone, Rubio’s vote will look rather different from the last opinion poll

Given point 1, it would be foolish to now make a prediction. But in the fog of confusion, I will say that Marco Rubio looks pretty well placed

John Kasich has skipped straight past Nevada. This is not his kind of state. He’s already headed back to the northern, liberal states and is making no pretence of running a national campaign. Instead he appears to be trying to turn his good result in New Hampshire into a decent pitch for Vice President. As Justin Hughes points out for The Hill:

New Hampshire helped Kasich to become that completely familiar face; even if Kasich takes a drubbing in the SEC primaries – as looks likely — he needs to hold on for the March 8 primaries in Ohio and Michigan to maintain that familiarity. If you’re a person who cares that at least someone on the GOP ticket knows how to govern – and that should be pretty much all of us – that’s the best result coming out of the primaries so far.

Eric Trump tells voters where to caucus- and reminds them that his dad owns a piece of the Las Vegas skyline.

Our own Nick Allen went to Donald Trump’s caucus-eve rally last night in Las Vegas. Here’s what he saw:

Donald Trump threatened to punch a protester in the face and suggested he would like to see the man removed on a stretcher.

The billionaire made the comments at a rally attended by thousands of his supporters in a Las Vegas rodeo hall on the eve of Nevada becoming the fourth state to vote in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

As a middle-aged man in a grey T-shirt was ejected by security Mr Trump said: “You know what? I miss the gold old days. We’re not allowed to punch back any more. You know what they used to do to guys like that in a place like this? They’d be carried out on a stretcher.

“I hate to see that, there’s a guy throwing punches, nasty as hell, screaming as we’re talking, The guards are very gentle and he’s walking out smiling. I tell you, I’d like to punch him in the face.  “To cheers from the crowd Mr Trump then moved on to talking about waterboarding terrorists.

“I think it’s great but I don’t think we go far enough,” he said. Mr Trump added: “I’m not a mean guy, I’m a nice guy, I just don’t want to be pushed around by a bunch of animals.”

Mr Trump’s campaign estimated the size of the crowd as 8,000 and claimed it was the biggest political rally to have ever taken place in Las Vegas.

The billionaire, who owns a 64-storey hotel in the city, is between 16 and 26 percentage points ahead of his rivals Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz in Nevada.

There were loud boos from the crowd at the mention of Mr Cruz.

“This guy is sick, there’s something wrong with him,” said Mr Trump. “He holds the Bible in one hand and lies.”

A member of the audience in a “USA” jacket shouted “Canadian,” a reference to Mr Cruz’s birth in Canada.

Caucuses are notoriously hard to predict – so much depends on turnout, which is typically quite low – but it would be a shock if Donald Trump did not win tonight.

The latest polls show him leading by an average of 16 points over Ted Cruz, and 20 points over Marco Rubio.

As for John Kasich and Ben Carson, it may not be a night to remember…

Here’s how the candidates stack up nationwide in the latest polls

The Republican field is down to five candidates, and they are gathered in the southwestern state of Nevada tonight ahead of the First in the West caucuses.

The doors will open at some caucus sites in three hours time, with voters gathering at sites around the state over the course of the evening.

At the end of the night we will know whether Donald Trump has continued his march to the Republican nomination, or if Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio have complicated matters.

Stick with us as we bring you all the latest from Nevada.

Las Vegas  Photo: Photolibrary

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