{"id":88758,"date":"2017-11-08T10:05:32","date_gmt":"2017-11-08T14:05:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=88758"},"modified":"2017-11-08T10:15:55","modified_gmt":"2017-11-08T14:15:55","slug":"88758","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=88758","title":{"rendered":"GOP Trounced in Virginia, 2018 Looks Bleak for Republicans Due to Hatred of Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>10 Things You Need To Know About Democrats SHELLACKING Republicans In Virginia &#8230; And What It Means For 2018<\/h1>\n<p><!--more-->By BEN SHAPIRO<br \/>\nThe Daily Wire<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_88759\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/img_7684.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-88759\" class=\"wp-image-88759 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/img_7684-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/img_7684-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/img_7684-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/img_7684-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/img_7684.jpg 1842w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-88759\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">By BEN SHAPIRO<\/p><\/div>\n<article class=\"article article-full\">\n<div class=\"article-body\">\n<div class=\"field-body\">\n<p>On Tuesday evening, despite polls showing a narrowing gubernatorial race between Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie in the days leading up to the election, Northam pulled off a massive victory \u2014 and more importantly, Democrats across the state trounced Republicans, putting control of the heretofore Republican-dominated House in question. Democrats have already picked up 10 seats in the statehouse and could easily pick up another seven, flipping the legislature. Meanwhile, they picked up seats in the Washington state senate, the governor\u2019s mansion in New Jersey, and two Georgia House seats, as well as expanding Medicaid in Maine, among other gains.<\/p>\n<p>Ouch.<\/p>\n<p>Here are 10 things you need to know:<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Virginia Was Already Moving Democratic.<\/strong>\u00a0The 2016 map looks a lot like the 2017 map; between 2013 and 2017, Virginia moved steadily Democratic. Northern Virginia in particular has moved to the Left in radical fashion thanks to people moving in from Washington D.C. As Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics notes, \u201cA lot of those state House seats that flipped were R seats in 2012, but were Clinton seats in 2016. They were primed to flip.\u201d Here\u2019s Nate Cohn\u2019s map showing the shift from 2013 to 2017:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Shift from Gov. &#39;13 to &#39;17. Dems improve in blue; Reps improve in red. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/m0ZUisodsF\">pic.twitter.com\/m0ZUisodsF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Nate_Cohn\/status\/928091215836385280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 8, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>And here\u2019s a map showing that 2016 looked a lot like 2017:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Virginia maps of 2017 (top-Northam\/Gillespie) &amp; 2016 (bottom-Clinton\/Trump) are basically the same  (NYT maps) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2VqyDKARei\">pic.twitter.com\/2VqyDKARei<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jamiedupree\/status\/928091169795530757?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 8, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><strong>2. The Gubernatorial Loss Isn\u2019t Unprecedented.<\/strong>\u00a0Chris Donovan of ABC News points out that losing both the Virginia and New Jersey governor\u2019s mansions isn\u2019t unprecedented for parties in off-year elections:<\/p>\n<div class=\"embed tweet\"><\/div>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Trump is the FIFTH President in a row to have his party lose BOTH the VA &amp; NJ gubernatorial races in his first year in office.<br \/>Winners:<br \/>2017: Dems Northam\/Murphy<br \/>2009: GOPers McDonnell\/Christie<br \/>2001: Dems Warner\/McGreevey<br \/>1993: GOPers Allen\/Whitman<br \/>1989: Dems Wilder\/Florio<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Chris Donovan (@chrisdonovan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/chrisdonovan\/status\/928076257136447489?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 8, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><strong>3. It\u2019s Not Clear Why Gillespie Lost.<\/strong>\u00a0There are people who claim that Gillespie lost because he didn\u2019t campaign militantly enough \u2014 that particularly in an off-year election, he needed to drum up the base by going hard after cultural issues. Gillespie did avoid talking about those issues, though his ad campaigns were far more militant and Trumpian. On the other hand, Gillespie\u2019s main areas of loss were Democratic areas where people turned out in droves to vote down Republicans; as Dave Weigel of\u00a0<em>The Washington Post<\/em>\u00a0notes:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In 2014, Gillespie won Loudoun County (DC exurbs) by 456 votes.<\/p>\n<p>He lost it today by 23,432 votes.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; David Weigel (@daveweigel) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/daveweigel\/status\/928087526115561472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 8, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>If Gillespie had gone full Trump \u2014 or if Corey Stewart had won his primary instead \u2014 it\u2019s highly unlikely that the race swings the other way.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4. The Legislative Losses\u00a0<em>Are<\/em>\u00a0Unprecedented In Modern Times.<\/strong>\u00a0As Jessica Post of the Democratic Leadership Congressional Council states, \u201cflipping 14 seats from red to blue in VA is the biggest Democratic pick-up since 1899.\u201d That\u2019s why Republicans should be so disturbed: Gillespie\u2019s supposed lack of Trumpian flair isn\u2019t responsible for Republicans getting annihilated across the board. Democrats are turning out, and Republicans aren\u2019t \u2014 at least not without Hillary on the ballot.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5. Democrats Have A Real Turnout Advantage In 2018.<\/strong>\u00a0Ten percent more Democrats than Republicans turned out in Virginia today. That\u2019s a disastrous number. There\u2019s a reason for it: many Democrats stayed home in 2016, thinking that Hillary Clinton didn\u2019t need their help, and that she was an off-putting candidate. She\u2019s not on the ballot in 2018. But Trump\u2019s record is, and they\u00a0<em>despise<\/em>\u00a0Trump. They\u2019ll show up this time, knowing that staying home made Trump president. Polls right now have generic Democrats walloping generic Republicans by an 11% margin. Meanwhile, Trump isn\u2019t going to drive people out to the polls when he\u2019s not on the ballot \u2014 we\u2019ve seen that in Alabama already, and now Virginia, too. 2020 may be a different story, but 2018 looks like it\u2019s shaping up for disaster, which is why so many Republicans are already bowing out of House races.<\/p>\n<p><strong>6. Trump Gives Democrats Part Of That Advantage.<\/strong>\u00a0President Trump\u2019s approval rating is historically awful for someone this early in his term; that isn\u2019t helping. Despite much of the base\u2019s interest in Trump and sympathy for him, his numbers just aren\u2019t high enough to drive winning turnout. In fact, his tendency to polarize every issue drives out Democrats: ABC News exit polling showed that \u201cvoters by a 2-1 margin said they were casting their ballot to show opposition to Trump rather than support for him. In New Jersey the margin was 3-1.\u201d Republicans may thrill to Trump\u2019s cultural warfare, but it can easily backfire, too.<\/p>\n<p><strong>7. Trump Isn&#8217;t The Main Reason Republicans Showed Up To Vote In 2016.<\/strong>\u00a0Many Republicans are under the dramatic misimpression that Trump boosts Republican ballot chances rather than hurting them, but the evidence simply isn\u2019t there for that. Trump radically underperformed nearly every Republican Senate candidate in 2016. He won fewer votes than Mitt Romney did in Wisconsin; Romney lost the state, Trump won. He won fewer votes in Michigan than Bush did in 2004; Bush lost the state. Trump won because nobody showed up to vote for Hillary. But Hillary\u2019s not on the ballot anymore, which means many Republicans will stay home; furthermore, Hillary\u2019s absence means that more Democrats will show up.<\/p>\n<p><strong>8. Trumpism Doesn\u2019t Exist.<\/strong>\u00a0The person hardest hit by Gillespie\u2019s loss is actually Steve Bannon. Bannon had been trying to take credit for Gillespie\u2019s poll rise, stating that Gillespie had embraced Trumpian politics. After Northam\u2019s blowout, however,\u00a0<em>Breitbart<\/em>\u00a0suddenly flipped and insisted that Gillespie was a \u201cRepublican swamp thing.\u201d All of this is nonsense. Trumpism isn\u2019t a movement. Trump isn\u2019t a movement. Trump is Trump, and there are many people who like him. It\u2019s that simple. You can\u2019t imitate Trump\u2019s positions and hope to channel his popularity \u2014 even Trump doesn\u2019t know his positions. You can\u2019t even mimic his aggression and hope to channel his popularity \u2014 Trump has a certain draw that virtually no one else does. The notion that Gillespie lost because he wasn\u2019t adherent to Trumpism is a Bannon creation \u2014 and Bannon has a stake in that creation because Bannon wants to represent Trumpism\u00a0<em>sans<\/em>\u00a0Trump. But Trumpism\u00a0<em>sans<\/em>\u00a0Trump is a figment of the media\u2019s imagination. There is no evidence for its existence whatsoever, which is why Bannon runs around the country picking candidates with no unifying agenda other than that Bannon can call them \u201canti-establishment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>9. The Trumpian Unfalsifiable Hypothesis Is Gaining Steam.<\/strong>\u00a0With the Virginia losses, those most loyal to Trump have two options: they can acknowledge that Trump is governing in unpopular fashion and that something must change, or they can blame everyone for failing to be sufficiently deferential to Trump. You can guess which way they lean. They\u2019ve constructed a fictional universe in which everyone who loses lost because Trump wasn\u2019t paid proper homage, and in which everyone who wins emerges victorious only thanks to the saving grace of Trump. It\u2019s utterly evidenceless, but it\u2019s also politically dangerous. Cults of personality don\u2019t have a great deal of currency at the ballot box when that personality isn\u2019t on the ballot.<\/p>\n<p><strong>10. Trump Only Cares About His Personal Power And Image.<\/strong>\u00a0Before the election, Trump touted Gillespie. Then, just as he did after Luther Strange lost his Senate primary in Alabama, Trump dumped Gillespie under the bus, blaming his loss on his failures to kiss the ring:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don\u2019t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/928074747316928513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 8, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This is a problem for a variety of reasons. First off, cultivating a cult of personality built around one man bodes ill for a national party \u2014 ask the Democrats who kept worshipping Obama as they lost 1,000 legislative seats across the country. Second, Trump\u2019s willingness to dump on his own candidates could lead Republicans to stay home for those candidates \u2014 and that\u2019s actually in Trump\u2019s interest. If he thinks he\u2019s going to take a serious loss in 2018, he can rip Republicans and then blame them for losing, stating that they failed to properly pay homage to him.<\/p>\n<div class=\"embed tweet\"><\/div>\n<p>It\u2019s easy to overread a single election night; it\u2019s also possible things will change radically before 2018. But if the 2018 elections were held next week, Republicans would be rightly preparing for disaster.<\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailywire.com\/news\/23303\/10-things-you-need-know-about-democrats-ben-shapiro\">http:\/\/www.dailywire.com\/news\/23303\/10-things-you-need-know-about-democrats-ben-shapiro<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"mt-4 mb-4\"><\/footer>\n<\/article>\n<section class=\"article-recommendations\" data-limit=\"4\">\n<h2 class=\"section-title-md\"><\/h2>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10 Things You Need To Know About Democrats SHELLACKING Republicans In Virginia &#8230; And What It Means For 2018<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=88758"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88758\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=88758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=88758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=88758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}