{"id":65015,"date":"2017-01-31T19:19:12","date_gmt":"2017-01-31T23:19:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=65015"},"modified":"2017-01-31T19:22:54","modified_gmt":"2017-01-31T23:22:54","slug":"deep-code-speaks-the-red-religion-vs-the-blue-church","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=65015","title":{"rendered":"DEEP CODE Speaks: The Red Religion vs. the Blue Church"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"section section--body section--first\">\n<div class=\"section-content\">\n<div class=\"section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn\">\n<figure id=\"ff7d\" class=\"graf graf--figure graf--leading\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder is-locked\">\n<div class=\"u-flex0\">\u00a0<!--more--><\/div>\n<h4 class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder-fill\"><a class=\"link link link--darken link--darker u-baseColor--link\" dir=\"auto\" href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/@jordangreenhall?source=post_header_lockup\" data-action=\"show-user-card\" data-action-source=\"post_header_lockup\" data-action-value=\"affe923beaf9\" data-action-type=\"hover\" data-user-id=\"affe923beaf9\">Jordan Greenhall<br \/>\n<\/a><span class=\"u-uiTextBold u-fontSizeBase u-lineHeight18 u-xs-fontSize22 u-xs-lineHeight22 u-xs-noWrapWithEllipsis u-inlineBlock u-xs-maxWidth200 u-textColorDark\"><a class=\"js-logCollection\" href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code?source=logo-lo_1faf802c06c8---7c4eb9aca066\">Deep Code<\/a><\/span><\/h4>\n<div class=\"progressiveMedia js-progressiveMedia graf-image is-canvasLoaded is-imageLoaded\" data-image-id=\"1*PLQIkUFqfdGj2WCwRWgpNw.jpeg\" data-width=\"690\" data-height=\"431\" data-scroll=\"native\"><canvas class=\"progressiveMedia-canvas js-progressiveMedia-canvas\" width=\"75\" height=\"43\"><\/canvas><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"progressiveMedia-image js-progressiveMedia-image aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*PLQIkUFqfdGj2WCwRWgpNw.jpeg\" data-src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*PLQIkUFqfdGj2WCwRWgpNw.jpeg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h1 id=\"0174\" class=\"graf graf--h3 graf-after--figure graf--title\">Situational Assessment 2017: Trump\u00a0Edition<\/h1>\n<p id=\"2e6b\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--h3\"><a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\/situational-assessment-2015-91222a66c834#.r6vazlcz2\" target=\"_blank\" data-href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\/situational-assessment-2015-91222a66c834#.r6vazlcz2\">In 2015, I took a swing at assessing the shape and state of our global challenges<\/a>. Looking back, that essay is still well worth a read, but it is high time for an update.<\/p>\n<p id=\"15b9\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">While many things have changed in the world in the past two years, 2016 saw what looks like a phase transition in the political domain. While the overall phenomenon is global in scale and includes Brexit and other movements throughout Europe, I want to focus specifically on the victory of the \u201cTrump Insurgency\u201d and drill down into detail on how this state change will play out.<\/p>\n<p id=\"0868\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">I use <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/globalguerrillas.typepad.com\/globalguerrillas\/2016\/02\/understanding-trump-.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-href=\"http:\/\/globalguerrillas.typepad.com\/globalguerrillas\/2016\/02\/understanding-trump-.html\">John Robb<\/a>\u2019s term \u201cTrump Insurgency\u201d here to highlight the fact that the election of 2016 was not an example of \u201cordinary politics\u201d. Anyone who fails to understand this is going to be making significant errors. For example, the 2016 election is not comparable to the 2000 election (e.g., merely a \u201cclose\u201d election) nor to the 1980 election (e.g., an \u201cideological transition\u201d election). While it is tempting to compare it to 1860, I\u2019m not sure that is a good match either.<\/p>\n<p id=\"6730\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">In fact, as I go back and try to do pattern matching, the only real pattern I can find is the 1776 \u201celection\u201d (AKA the American Revolution). In other words, while 2016 still formally looked like politics, what is really going on here is a revolutionary war. For now this is war using memes rather than bullets, but war is much more than a metaphor.<\/p>\n<p id=\"db20\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">This war is about much more than ideology, money or power. Even the participants likely do not fully understand the stakes. At a deep level, we are right in the middle of an existential conflict between two entirely different and incompatible ways of forming \u201ccollective intelligence\u201d. This is a deep point and will likely be confusing. So I\u2019m going to take it slow and below will walk through a series of \u201cfronts\u201d of the war that I see playing out over the next several years. This is a pretty tactical assessment and should make sense and be useful to anyone. I\u2019ll get to the deep point last\u200a\u2014\u200aand will be going way out there in an effort to grasp \u201cwhat is really going on\u201d. I\u2019ll definitely miss wildly, but with any luck, the total journey will be worth the time.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"e673\" class=\"graf graf--figure graf-after--p\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder is-locked\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder-fill\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"progressiveMedia js-progressiveMedia graf-image is-imageLoaded is-canvasLoaded\" data-image-id=\"1*3tgRmWs8Kgm9ZFAnvqGBhA.jpeg\" data-width=\"576\" data-height=\"423\" data-scroll=\"native\"><canvas class=\"progressiveMedia-canvas js-progressiveMedia-canvas\" width=\"75\" height=\"53\"><\/canvas><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"progressiveMedia-image js-progressiveMedia-image\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*3tgRmWs8Kgm9ZFAnvqGBhA.jpeg\" data-src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*3tgRmWs8Kgm9ZFAnvqGBhA.jpeg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"imageCaption\">Own the battlefield, own the\u00a0war.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"477e\" class=\"graf graf--h3 graf-after--figure\">Front One: Communications Infrastructure.<\/h3>\n<p id=\"16fc\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--h3\">All modern warfighters know that the first step of any conflict is to disrupt the enemy\u2019s communications and control infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p id=\"cccc\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Our legacy sensemaking system was largely composed of and dominated by a small set of communications channels. These included the largest newspapers (e.g., NYT and Washington Post) and television networks (e.g., CNN, CBS, Fox, etc.). Until very recently, effectively all sensemaking was mediated by these channels and, as a consequence, these channels delivered a highly effective mechanism for coordinated messaging and control. A sizable fraction of the power, influence and effectiveness of the last-stage power elites (e.g., the neocon alliances in both the Democratic and Republican parties) was due to their mastery at utilizing these legacy channels.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3c67\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">It is important for anyone planning in the contemporary environment to recognize that the activities of the Trump Insurgency are entirely different to all previous actors. Rather than endeavoring to establish control over the legacy infrastructure, the Trump Insurgency is in the process of destroying it entirely and replacing it with a very different architecture. One that is intrinsically compatible with its own form of collective intelligence.<\/p>\n<p id=\"c006\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">It is clear to me that the Insurgency is engaged in \u201ctotal war\u201d. They are simultaneously attacking the legacy power structures on multiple fronts (access, business viability and, in particular, legitimacy) while innovating entirely novel approaches to the problem of large scale communications and control (e.g., direct tweets from POTUS). Their intent is not to play with or even dominate the legacy media\u200a\u2014\u200abut to eliminate them from the field entirely and to replace them with something else altogether.<\/p>\n<p id=\"1a67\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">This approach is strategically optimal. The Trump Insurgency represents a novel model of collective intelligence <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">in general. <\/em>It is the first truly viable approach that is connected directly with the emergent decentralized attractor that has been driving technical\/economic disruption for the last several decades. This form of governance is <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">structurally incompatible<\/em> with the legacy media architecture. It is intrinsically dissonant with the kind of top-down, slow, controlled, synchronized approach of the old media. It therefore both must dismantle this architecture and replace it with one that is in synch with its mode of operation and, thereby, benefits massively by hamstringing any collective intelligence that works in the old top-down fashion (i.e., all existing forces currently at play).<\/p>\n<p id=\"48fe\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">To use a concept from <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/muse.jhu.edu\/article\/396498\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-href=\"http:\/\/muse.jhu.edu\/article\/396498\">Gilles Deleuze<\/a>, the Trump Insurgency is a <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">nomadic war machine<\/em> and it is in the process of smoothing the space of communication. To use a simpler metaphor, if you imagine the Trump Insurgency as highly effective desert guerrillas, they are currently in the process of turning everything into a desert. The Establishment, optimized for \u201cjungle conflict\u201d, is going to have a hard time.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3f25\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">From where I sit, it seems evident that the Insurgency\u2019s ability to read-plan-react (their \u201c<a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/OODA_loop\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/OODA_loop\">OODA loop<\/a>\u201d) is simply of a higher order than the legacy power structures. For at least the past 18 months, the Insurgency has been running circles around the the Establishment and the old media. Accordingly, I fully expect the Insurgency to win this fight. Specifically, for all functional purposes, I expect the memetic efficacy of the New York Times, CNN, the Washington Post, MSNBC and related channels to be near zero within the next two to four years. I would not be surprised to see several of these entities actually out of business.<\/p>\n<p id=\"44a9\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Note, the relative position of \u201cnew media\u201d such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube is harder to predict. I suspect that most of the important conflict of this front will take place here. Right now, all of new media is controlled by forces broadly opposed to the Insurgency. Yet the Insurgency must establish dominance on this territory. They can accomplish this either by capturing these existing platforms (aka \u201cbend the knee\u201d capitulation) or by moving the center of power to new platforms that are aligned with the Insurgency (e.g., gab.ai replacing Twitter). If you think that this latter is highly unlikely, I strongly urge you to reexamine your models and assumptions.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a010\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">My sense is that the decisive decision in this conflict is whether the \u201cnew media\u201d remain coupled to the legacy power structures (and their OODA loops) or decouple and enter into a direct conflict for \u201cdecentralized supremacy\u201d (see my last point below). If they choose the former, they will lose. If they choose the latter, the outcome is hard to predict.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"4b14\" class=\"graf graf--figure graf-after--p\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder is-locked\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder-fill\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"progressiveMedia js-progressiveMedia graf-image is-canvasLoaded is-imageLoaded\" data-image-id=\"1*PkljSuYBIOpX4GqBrvNftw.png\" data-width=\"732\" data-height=\"709\" data-action=\"zoom\" data-action-value=\"1*PkljSuYBIOpX4GqBrvNftw.png\" data-scroll=\"native\"><canvas class=\"progressiveMedia-canvas js-progressiveMedia-canvas\" width=\"75\" height=\"71\"><\/canvas><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"progressiveMedia-image js-progressiveMedia-image\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*PkljSuYBIOpX4GqBrvNftw.png\" data-src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*PkljSuYBIOpX4GqBrvNftw.png\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"c6b0\" class=\"graf graf--h3 graf-after--figure\">Front Two: The Deep\u00a0State<\/h3>\n<p id=\"6c79\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--h3\">In ordinary politics, an elected candidate is expected to integrate with and make relatively small fine-tuning changes to the existing state apparatus and the mass of career bureaucrats that make up most of the actual machinery of government (AKA the \u201c<a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Deep_state_in_the_United_States\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Deep_state_in_the_United_States\">deep state<\/a>\u201d). Thus, while the Obama Administration might differ quite significantly from the Bush Administration in political theory and intent, the actual impact of theses differences on the real trajectory of the \u201cship of state\u201d is relatively small.<\/p>\n<p id=\"25be\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">My assessment is that the Trump Insurgency has identified the Deep State itself as its central antagonist and is engaged in a direct existential conflict with it.<\/p>\n<p id=\"163d\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Normally this would be an easy win for the Deep State. However, I expect this front to be the most challenging, uncertain and dangerous of the war. The Deep State is massive, has access to vast resources and capabilities and has been in the business of controlling power for decades. But two things are moving in the Insurgency\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n<p id=\"8073\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">First, the Deep State appears to be fragmented. For example, the \u201cRussian Hacking\u201d scenario of the past two months looks surprisingly uncoordinated and incompetent. I don\u2019t know exactly what is going on here, but it is clearly not the product of a unified and smoothly operating Deep State.<\/p>\n<p id=\"cd2b\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Second, it seems highly likely that the Deep State is prepared to fight \u201cthe last war\u201d while the Insurgency is bringing an entirely different kind of fight. The Deep State developed in and for the 20th Century. You might say that they are experts at fighting Trench Warfare. But this is the 21st Century and the Insurgency has innovated <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">Blitzkrieg<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"7988\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Let\u2019s take a look at the \u201cfake news\u201d meme for example. This has all the earmarks of a Deep State initiative. Carefully planned, highly coordinated, coming from all authoritative directions, strategically targeted. My read is that this was a Deep State response to the Communications Infrastructure fight. But it looks like this initiative has not only failed, but that the Insurgency has been able to leverage its decisive OODA loop advantages to turn the entire thing around and make \u201cfake news\u201d its own tool. How? By moving rapidly, unconventionally, in a very decentralized fashion and with complete commitment to victory.<\/p>\n<p id=\"0ee9\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">If my read is correct, the balance of the struggle between the Deep State and the Insurgency will be determined by how quickly the Deep State can dispense with old and dysfunctional doctrine and innovate novel approaches that are adequate to the war. In other words, is this the Western Front (France falling in six weeks) or the Eastern Front (the USSR bleeding and giving ground until it could innovate a new war machine that could outcompete the Wehrmacht).<\/p>\n<p id=\"0910\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">If my read of the situation is correct (which, of course, it very well may not be), then the Deep State would be ill advised indeed to undertake any major efforts in the next 12\u201324 months. For example, an \u201cimpeach Trump\u201d initiative, would almost certainly be an enormous strategic disaster. In spite of the apparent strength of the Deep State, the Insurgency\u2019s superior OODA loop would likely result in an Insurgency victory in this fight\u200a\u2014\u200aand victory here would greatly strengthen the Insurgency\u2019s position. (Can you say \u201cEmperor Trump?)<\/p>\n<p id=\"e11f\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">From the opposite direction, the Insurgency would be well advised to <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">Blitzkrieg<\/em>. Right now it has the advantage of an approach and a model that its opponent doesn\u2019t understand and can\u2019t react to effectively. But the Deep State is deep. Given time it could learn how to win this fight. If the Insurgency wants to win, it needs to radically reduce the Deep State\u2019s strategic agency quickly. This means moving fast and moving decisively.<\/p>\n<p id=\"bfaf\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">I cannot overstate how <strong class=\"markup--strong markup--p-strong\">deeply<\/strong> dangerous this fight is. Classically, when a long-standing hegemony (cf \u201cPax Americana) is weakened and distracted by intra-elite conflict, rivals like Russia and China will see an opportunity to move from a hegemonic to a multi-polar world and can be tempted into adventurism. In these conditions, even the slightest mistake can push the system into nearly catastrophic conflict.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"1ba7\" class=\"graf graf--figure graf-after--p\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder is-locked\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder-fill\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"progressiveMedia js-progressiveMedia graf-image is-canvasLoaded is-imageLoaded\" data-image-id=\"1*CrO5NGy8YLsV5ew0rO9w0w.jpeg\" data-width=\"800\" data-height=\"450\" data-action=\"zoom\" data-action-value=\"1*CrO5NGy8YLsV5ew0rO9w0w.jpeg\" data-scroll=\"native\"><canvas class=\"progressiveMedia-canvas js-progressiveMedia-canvas\" width=\"75\" height=\"40\"><\/canvas><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"progressiveMedia-image js-progressiveMedia-image\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*CrO5NGy8YLsV5ew0rO9w0w.jpeg\" data-src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*CrO5NGy8YLsV5ew0rO9w0w.jpeg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"fb63\" class=\"graf graf--h3 graf-after--figure\">Front Three: Globalism<\/h3>\n<p id=\"5a8b\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--h3\">Anti-globalist rhetoric was one of the most enduring and central features of the Trump campaign. Indeed, if Trump clearly stood for anything, resisting the \u201cfalse song of globalism\u201d was it. And all evidence in the post-election environment is that the Trump Insurgency will indeed be actively anti-globalist.<\/p>\n<p id=\"47e5\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">What is flat out astounding is the relative ease with which Trump has been able to cut through globalist Gordian Knots. For half a decade, the Trans-Pacific Partnership was an unstoppable juggernaut. Until, that is, Trump decided to end it. Perhaps this is evidence of a \u201cbelow the surface\u201d weakness that made TPP a paper tiger. Perhaps it is evidence of the relative balance of power between nationalist and globalist institutions. At least when the nationalist institution is the United States. (Compare the Greeks <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">vis a vis<\/em> the EU). Perhaps it is evidence of a larger scale anti-globalist conflict that has been raging for nearly a decade and has been surfacing all over the place (Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, etc.).<\/p>\n<p id=\"2233\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">In any event, it is a significant victory and I am certain that it will embolden the Insurgency. At this point, I expect the Insurgency to cut deep into globalist power institutions (the World Bank, the UN, various treaty organizations) and, more importantly, globalist-allied national institutions like the Federal Reserve. The Globalists have an odd connection to power. Generally, they must move through influence and threat to elites, with a non-trivial amount of mass level propaganda to smooth the way. The Insurgency is broadly immune to globalist propaganda, the Insurgency elites seem unlikely to play ball with globalist elites or to back down under threat. At this point, I see only two real moves available to the globalists. 1) economic destabilization hoping to turn \u201cthe people\u201d against the Insurgency; 2) some kind of some kind of social\/military destabilization.<\/p>\n<p id=\"0aa0\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">But I don\u2019t give the globalists much of a chance. Of all of the major world powers, only the EU is currently dominated by globalists, and with the victory of Brexit and the surge of nationalism in France, the Netherlands, etc., even the Eurocrats are on the run.<\/p>\n<p id=\"3039\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">By moving quickly and decisively against the Deep State allies of globalism at home and erecting nationalist resilience to global institutional influence (e.g, high tariffs and protectionist monetary policy), combined with shaping a narrative that points all bad economic news directly at globalists, the Insurgency might well be able to cut most globalist power off at the knees.<\/p>\n<p id=\"ddcf\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Notably, even large multi-national corporations\u200a\u2014\u200auntil recently appearing to be pulling the strings of political policy\u200a\u2014\u200aseem to be rapidly capitulating to the Insurgency. The two major globalist forces that have not yet been publicly tested are the energy companies and the banks. What will happen here remains to be seen. A cynic might suggest that the Insurgency itself is only superficially populist and in fact really simply represents the interests of Energy and Banks against other elites. That cynic might be right, we shall see.<\/p>\n<p id=\"44b7\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">The net-net result of this front will be a significant weakening of the post-War global institutional order and a rebalancing of power along not yet fully understood nationalist alignments. It is not clear what effect this change will have. For example, one might expect \u201cglobal scale\u201d issues like climate disruption or terrorism to lose focus and efficacy\u200a\u2014\u200abut that isn\u2019t clear. It is certainly plausible that nation-to-nation alliances can make significant forward progress in even these areas of interest. Particularly if you assume that globalist agendas were extracting value from global scale crises rather than resolving them.<\/p>\n<p id=\"0a8f\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Moreover, there is no reason to believe that a multi-polar nationalism will be less stable over the long term than a hegemony. History has certainly cut both ways. Perhaps what is most clear is this: the period of <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">transition<\/em> as globalist forces struggle to maintain power while nationalist forces are not yet in any form of stable equilibrium with each-other is a moment (possibly lasting years) of extreme danger.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"9aaf\" class=\"graf graf--figure graf-after--p\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder is-locked\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder-fill\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"progressiveMedia js-progressiveMedia graf-image is-canvasLoaded is-imageLoaded\" data-image-id=\"1*xGeGmkWfx7JBE7sOeyq2YQ.jpeg\" data-width=\"1190\" data-height=\"595\" data-action=\"zoom\" data-action-value=\"1*xGeGmkWfx7JBE7sOeyq2YQ.jpeg\" data-scroll=\"native\"><canvas class=\"progressiveMedia-canvas js-progressiveMedia-canvas\" width=\"75\" height=\"37\"><\/canvas><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"progressiveMedia-image js-progressiveMedia-image\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*xGeGmkWfx7JBE7sOeyq2YQ.jpeg\" data-src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*xGeGmkWfx7JBE7sOeyq2YQ.jpeg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"imageCaption\">Bacteria developing antibiotic resistance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"d7ef\" class=\"graf graf--h3 graf-after--figure\">Front Four: The New Culture\u00a0War<\/h3>\n<p id=\"2495\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--h3\">Last week, Reddit user <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">notjafo<\/em> expressed something important. It is worth <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/The_Donald\/comments\/5nktdn\/why_hollywood_is_really_freaking_out_over_trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-href=\"http:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/The_Donald\/comments\/5nktdn\/why_hollywood_is_really_freaking_out_over_trump\/\">reading his entire post<\/a>, but the gist is this: the left won the culture war of the 1960\u2019s\u200a\u2014\u200a1990\u2019s. And the Trump Insurgency does not represent \u201cthe next move\u201d of the old right in that old war. It represents the first move of an emergent new culture. One that is directly at war with the \u201cBlue Church\u201d on the ground of culture itself.<\/p>\n<blockquote id=\"64ec\" class=\"graf graf--blockquote graf--startsWithDoubleQuote graf-after--p\"><p>\u201cThe Blue Church is panicking because they\u2019ve just witnessed the birth of a new Red Religion. Not the tired old Christian cliches they defeated back in the \u201960s, but a new faith based on cultural identity and outright rejection of the Blue Faith.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200a\/u\/notjfao<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p id=\"cf3d\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--blockquote\">While I can nit pick at some of his analysis, broadly speaking I agree. As of 2016, the shoe is on the other foot\u200a\u2014\u200athe counter culture has become the mainstream and the Insurgents are the new counter culture.<\/p>\n<p id=\"0b6c\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Similar to the other battles, this Culture War front is characterized by a distinction between a more powerful and established Blue team organized around and fighting \u201cthe last war\u201d and a Red team still in flux but beginning to figure out how to fight from the future. And, as per the other fronts, until the Blue team figures this out, it will continue to lose ground without understanding why.<\/p>\n<p id=\"b20c\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">In this case, however, the superior OODA loop of the Insurgency is only part of the strategic shift. Of far more importance is the fact that the Insurgency evolved within a culture broadly dominated by the values and techniques of the Blue Church and therefore, by simple natural selection, is now almost entirely immune to the total set of \u201cBlue critique\u201d.<\/p>\n<p id=\"ba78\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">In other words, if we map the arc of the culture war from the 1950\u2019s through to the 1990\u2019s we will see the slow emergence of a set of strategies, techniques and alliances on the part of the emerging Blue Church that became increasingly perfected and effective over time. For example, the critical power of the epithets \u201cracist\u201d or \u201csexist\u201d which had little or no traction in the 1930\u2019s and 1940\u2019s had, by the 1990\u2019s become decisive.<\/p>\n<p id=\"91b9\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Yet, even as the Blue Church was achieving dominance, the roots of the Insurgency were being laid. And, like bacteria becoming increasingly immune to an antibiotic after constant exposure, those aspects of the emergent \u201cRed Religion\u201d that were able to survive <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">at all<\/em> began to coalesce and expand. What has now erupted into the zeitgeist is something new and almost completely immune to the rhetorical and political techniques of the Blue Church. To call an adherent of the Red Religion \u201cracist\u201d is unlikely to elicit much more than a \u201ckek\u201d and a derisive dismissal. The old weapons have no more sting.<\/p>\n<p id=\"8349\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Moreover, the Red Religion does not intend to engage the Blue Church in any way other than \u201coutright rejection.\u201d It considers the Church and its adherents to be acting in bad faith by default and the doctrines of the Church to be little more than a form of mental illness. Accordingly, the Red Religion has no intention of dialogue, conversation or even sharing power with the Church.<\/p>\n<p id=\"687d\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">The Blue Church should expect to meet the Red Religion in war. And in this conflict the Red Religion has the advantage.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a576\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">In the nature of every movement that has endured the crucible of selection, the Red Religion is much more coherent and focused than the dominant Church which is criss-crossed with internal conflict and in-fighting. The Red Religion was born into and optimized for new media (e.g, optimized for memes rather than films) and as the balance of power shifts from 20th Century media to 21st Century media, this inures to the advantage of the Reds. Going deeper, even as the Red Religion has developed an immunity to most of the primary techniques of the Blue Church, it has simultaneously developed its own memetic\/values structure connected with deep human values that stem from ancient \u201ctribal selection\u201d and are highly attractive to the portions of the human family (men and women) who are focused on protecting and defending their tribe (hence the Red Religions\u2019 intrinsic focus on Nationalism).<\/p>\n<p id=\"20a6\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">In other words, over the short to mid term, most of the humans who are best prepared to wage war\u200a\u2014\u200awho are most attuned to and psychologically ready for war\u200a\u2014\u200awill be attracted to the Red Religion. They will be focused, almost entirely immune to the entire portfolio of Blue weapons and they will be armed with and optimized for 21st Century techniques of waging culture war.<\/p>\n<p id=\"5a79\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">As a consequence, the result of this conflict will almost certainly be fatal for the Blue Church. We are already witnessing it, in the form of both an increasingly desperate \u201cdoubling down\u201d on obviously impotent attacks and a creeping demoralization within the fabric of the Church. I expect to see this accelerate and as the Insurgency wins on other fronts, the set of alliances that hold the Church together will begin to unravel and the Church will collapse.<\/p>\n<p id=\"d58f\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p graf--last\">The sooner that happens, the better it will be for everyone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"section section--body section--last\">\n<div class=\"section-divider\">\n<hr class=\"section-divider\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"section-content\">\n<div class=\"section-inner sectionLayout--insetColumn\">\n<p id=\"82ca\" class=\"graf graf--p graf--leading\">Right now, the Church is killing us. While it is holding many important, necessary values, it is also holding a ton of stuff that is deeply dysfunctional. But by monopolizing the instruments of culture and power, it inhibits us like a well meaning but overbearing parent from being able to form the new innovations in culture, practice and value that are necessary to our age. The collapse of the Blue Church is going to lead to a level of \u201ccultural flux\u201d that will make the 1960\u2019s look like the Eisenhower administration. As the Church falls away, the \u201cchildren of Blue\u201d will explode out in a Cambrian explosion and reach out to engage in all out culture war with the still nascent Red Religion.<\/p>\n<p id=\"c402\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">This Culture War will be unlike anything we have ever seen. It will take place everywhere all at once, constrained less by geography than by technical platform and by the complex relationship between innovation and power on an exponential technology curve. It will be a struggle over not just the content, but the very <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">sense and nature<\/em> of identity, meaning and purpose. It will mutate so quickly and will evolve so rapidly that all of our legacy techniques (both psychological and institutional) for making sense of and responding to the world will melt into so much tapioca. This will be terrifying. It is also the source of our best hope.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"cb20\" class=\"graf graf--figure graf-after--p\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder is-locked\">\n<div class=\"aspectRatioPlaceholder-fill\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"progressiveMedia js-progressiveMedia graf-image is-canvasLoaded is-imageLoaded\" data-image-id=\"1*dD4X3U9Adr9UsQCPdIxlYA.jpeg\" data-width=\"1185\" data-height=\"670\" data-action=\"zoom\" data-action-value=\"1*dD4X3U9Adr9UsQCPdIxlYA.jpeg\" data-scroll=\"native\"><canvas class=\"progressiveMedia-canvas js-progressiveMedia-canvas\" width=\"75\" height=\"40\"><\/canvas><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"progressiveMedia-image js-progressiveMedia-image\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*dD4X3U9Adr9UsQCPdIxlYA.jpeg\" data-src=\"http:\/\/cdn-images-1.medium.com\/max\/640\/1*dD4X3U9Adr9UsQCPdIxlYA.jpeg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"imageCaption\">Ice crystals poised for a phase transition.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"75c3\" class=\"graf graf--h3 graf-after--figure\"><strong class=\"markup--strong markup--h3-strong\">The War for Collective Intelligence<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p id=\"9dda\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--h3\">If you\u2019ve made it this far (or chose to skip directly here), take a breath and settle in. This is the interesting part. For that precious few who prioritize understanding over brevity, what follows will make much more sense if you have read my <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\/foundational-assumptions-e81b5b55e3ff#.tj36hv1ti\" target=\"_blank\" data-href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\/foundational-assumptions-e81b5b55e3ff#.tj36hv1ti\">Foundational Assumptions<\/a>, <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/emergent-culture\/the-coming-great-transition-e50d62da77d4#.nuy8al3ys\" target=\"_blank\" data-href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/emergent-culture\/the-coming-great-transition-e50d62da77d4#.nuy8al3ys\">The Coming Great Transition<\/a>, <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/emergent-culture\/introducing-generation-omega-f1cfdaea0b49#.viq9khn33\" target=\"_blank\" data-href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/emergent-culture\/introducing-generation-omega-f1cfdaea0b49#.viq9khn33\">Introducing Generation Omega<\/a> and <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\/the-future-of-organization-b26219e5fc95#.f9ndihhi3\" target=\"_blank\" data-href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\/the-future-of-organization-b26219e5fc95#.f9ndihhi3\">The Future of Organization<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"353a\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">For those who want the <em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">tldr<\/em>, it is this: we live in a non-linear world, stop thinking linearly.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a377\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Once you have accepted this as the task, you will eventually come to an important conclusion: you can\u2019t. By yourself, you can\u2019t think non-linearly. This isn\u2019t your fault. Individual human beings can\u2019t think non-linearly. Only \u201ccollective intelligences,\u201d those agents of \u201cinter-subjective consciousness\u201d can. To put it more simply, we <strong class=\"markup--strong markup--p-strong\">implement<\/strong> and <strong class=\"markup--strong markup--p-strong\">do<\/strong> things as individuals. We <strong class=\"markup--strong markup--p-strong\">innovate<\/strong> as tribes. And the world we live in today\u200a\u2014\u200athe world of the 21st Century\u200a\u2014\u200ais a world of continuous innovation.<\/p>\n<p id=\"374c\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">In this environment, for the first time ever in history, the ability to innovate is decisively superior to the ability to deploy power. Prior to today, the rule of \u201cthe battle goes to whoever gets there the first with the most\u201d was a decent rule of thumb. Of course, this has never been strictly the case. Most of the great stories of history are built around moments of innovation where the smarter but less powerful group was able to outwit and undermine their opponent with superior technique, technology and strategy. Over time the balance has slowly but consistently moved in the direction of innovation. Ask Turing and Oppenheimer about the accelerating pace of innovation as it relates to war.<\/p>\n<p id=\"b263\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\"><span class=\"markup--quote markup--p-quote is-other\" data-creator-ids=\"anon\"><em class=\"markup--em markup--p-em\">The<\/em> conflict of the 21st Century is about forming a Collective Intelligence that can outwit and out innovate all of its competitors. The central challenge is to innovate a way of collaborating and cohering individuals that maximally deploys their individual perspectives, capabilities, understandings and insights with each-other. Right now, the Insurgency has the edge. It has discovered some key ways to tap into the power of decentralized collective intelligence and this is its principal advantage. While it is definitely not a mature version of a decentralized collective intelligence, it is substantially more so than any collective intelligence with which it is competing and unless and until a more effective decentralized collective intelligence enters the field, this advantage is enough.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"dc58\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Like all wars, the shape of this particular conflict will be highly dependent on path, timing and surprise. Right now, for example, the relative difference in power between the Establishment and the Insurgency is large, and while it continues to lose it\u2019s impact, power still matters. At the same time, while the Insurgency has a meaningful advantage in \u201ccollective intelligence\u201d this advantage is not overwhelming. Thus the details of the situation that I describe above.<\/p>\n<p id=\"f1b8\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">So, for example, if the Deep State uses its power advantage as a way to stall until until it can innovate a collective intelligence advantage, it has a decent chance. (Of course, becoming a decentralized collective intelligence is going to be really hard for the actual individuals who make up the Deep State to understand and accept.)<\/p>\n<p id=\"ad1a\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">But watch out as the conflict evolves. As the Insurgency cuts down and unplugs legacy power structures (e.g, the media, the intelligence agencies) and replaces them with more fluid and innovative approaches (e.g., gab.ai and Palantir) the balance will begin to tip quickly. If the Establishment cannot stave off the Insurgency in the next 4\u20135 years, that phase of the war will be over.<\/p>\n<p id=\"de54\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Then the real question. Does the Insurgency and the Red Religion represent a stable attractor in the 21st Century. Can it form a collective intelligence that is able to select-against and out-compete all comers. If so, what does this look like? My sense is that this is ultimately a highly unstable state. While tribalism (nationalism) can be very potent in the short term, it is ultimately a deeply unstable ship to navigate the oceans of the future.<\/p>\n<p id=\"9be6\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Or is there a different timeline where one of the \u201cchildren of Blue\u201d discovers an approach that is more intelligent still\u200a\u2014\u200aone that is more fit to ride the wave of exponential technology and global scale crisis? One that is more fully in line with the true nature of inter-subjective consciousness? One that can scale without losing its coherence? One that is adequate to the whole set of existential challenges of the 21st Century?<\/p>\n<p id=\"422e\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">Such an eventuality is certainly possible\u200a\u2014\u200aalthough the most robust collective intelligence is likely to be more purple than red or blue. How likely? Well, right now I think we have a decent chance but really do believe that the die will be cast in the next 3\u20135 years.<\/p>\n<p id=\"e891\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">For those who want to take action, I have three recommendations:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"postList\">\n<li id=\"f1b0\" class=\"graf graf--li graf-after--p\">The Blue Church, the Deep State, the Old Media and all the other aspects of the Establishment are holding you back. Free your mind. This is going to be much harder than it sounds. For most people, if you are under 40, your entire development has taken place within the context of the Blue Church. Many of your deepest assumptions and unconscious values are going to have to be examined with brutal honesty and courage.<\/li>\n<li id=\"c8e8\" class=\"graf graf--li graf-after--li\">All Collective Intelligence is gated by Sensemaking. Right now, our collective sensemaking systems are in complete disarray. We don\u2019t know who or what to trust. We barely even know how. Find ways to improve your individual sensemaker and collaborate on collective sensemaking systems. This should get easier as the old media and the Blue Church collapse.<\/li>\n<li id=\"46ff\" class=\"graf graf--li graf-after--li\">Both #1 and #2 require other people. And, since all of our old ways of collaborating with other people are either suspect or obsolete, you are going to have to learn how to build real faithful relationships the old fashioned way. Get <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--li-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/jordangreenhall.deviantart.com\/journal\/On-Friendship-298794833\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-href=\"http:\/\/jordangreenhall.deviantart.com\/journal\/On-Friendship-298794833\">much better at making friends<\/a>. I don\u2019t mean casual acquaintances. And I definitely don\u2019t mean social network contacts. I mean the kinds of people who ready willing and able to actually care for you\u200a\u2014\u200aeven at risk to themselves. Not because of shared ideology or even shared mission, but because of the deep stuff of human commitment.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p id=\"4893\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--li\">Good luck.<\/p>\n<p id=\"bd0f\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p graf--last\">[Note: this was published in <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\" target=\"_blank\" data-href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\">Deep Code<\/a> and is intended to be challenging and to move the conversation forward. Comments that are thoughtful and contribute will be greatly appreciated. Comments that are not will be deleted.]<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\/situational-assessment-2017-trump-edition-d189d24fc046#.x6955pm7k\">http:\/\/medium.com\/deep-code\/situational-assessment-2017-trump-edition-d189d24fc046#.x6955pm7k<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-65015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=65015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65015\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=65015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=65015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=65015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}