{"id":6366,"date":"2014-07-19T01:56:27","date_gmt":"2014-07-19T01:56:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=6366"},"modified":"2014-07-19T01:56:27","modified_gmt":"2014-07-19T01:56:27","slug":"researcher-claims-earthquake-secrets-unlocked","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=6366","title":{"rendered":"RESEARCHER CLAIMS EARTHQUAKE SECRETS UNLOCKED"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Screen<\/a><\/p>\n

By Andrew J. Ireland<\/p>\n

WASHINGTON \u2013 For decades, scientists have sought a method to predict earthquakes and save thousands of lives, without success.<\/p>\n

Mainstream scientists still believe there is no reliable method of prediction, but David Nabhan, author of \u201cEarthquake Prediction: Answers in Plain Slight,\u201d thinks he\u2019s on to something.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s now confident enough in his work to urge government leaders to take action and prepare for major tremors during certain periods of time.<\/p>\n

He even has identified specific dates this summer on which significant quakes are likely to occur.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m calling for this matter to be placed on the governor\u2019s desk,\u201d he said, referring to California Gov. Jerry Brown.<\/p>\n

So far, Nabhan says, his conclusions have fallen on deaf ears, which he sees as a travesty for public safety.<\/p>\n

Much of his work centers on \u201chigher probability windows for seismicity,\u201d which simply means the periods of time when earthquakes are most likely to occur.<\/p>\n

He examined the records of earthquakes within a radius of 70 miles of Los Angeles\u2019 city center from 1933 to 1994 that were powerful enough to kill and noticed every one occurred within a three-hour window at dusk or dawn. Further, about two-thirds took place within 36 hours of the instant of a full or new moon.<\/p>\n

He concluded lunar and solar cycles working in tandem, through their gravitational pull, could have a part in triggering earthquakes.<\/p>\n

He reasons that if such a force can create the tides of the ocean, it can surely impact seismic activity.<\/p>\n

Nabhan taught in South Central Los Angeles for 19 years and was the former Los Angeles Unified School District Earthquake Preparedness Coordinator for his school site for 15 of those years. He now lives in Pittsburgh.<\/p>\n

No longer \u2018balderdash\u2019?<\/b><\/p>\n

Giving some credence to Nabhan\u2019s theories, Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Society told CBS Los Angeles \u201cthere\u2019s a very slight correlation\u201d between lunar and solar cycles and seismic activity.<\/p>\n

\u201cTen years ago, that\u2019s not what she was saying,\u201d Nabhan said. \u201cShe was saying that there\u2019s no correlation at all. Ten years before that, she was saying balderdash.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now, after having his work published in the San Diego Journal of History, one of the West Coast\u2019s oldest and most reputable scholarly journals, Nabhan says, \u201cThe cat is out of the bag regarding tides.\u201d<\/p>\n

He believes gravitational pull has an effect worldwide on seismic activity but sees far more than a subtle correlation in Southern California. Nabhan hypothesizes that \u201cdue to some quirks in geography on the West Coast,\u201d the region is more susceptible to the impact of lunar and solar activity. So much so, he believes earthquakes are predictable, an idea dismissed by the USGS.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll of the earthquakes that have struck in Southern California and have killed people show signs of having been triggered by lunar and solar gravitational tides to a degree which makes it pretty apparent,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the U.S. Geologic Survey released a map Thursday that increases the earthquake risk for about half of the United States and lowers it for about one-quarter of the nation. Parts of Washington, Oregon, Utah, Oklahoma, Colorado, Wyoming and Tennessee moved into the top two hazard zones, the Associated Press reported.<\/p>\n

Dates to test his theory<\/b><\/p>\n

Nabhan said that based on his theories, this summer provides three \u201cexcellent examples\u201d of probable days for seismic activity in Southern California \u2013 July 12, Aug. 10 and Sept. 9.<\/p>\n

A significant quake did occur July 12, halfway across the globe in Japan, and another the following day in Chile.<\/p>\n

The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated the quake to be 6.8-magnitude. The U.S. Geological Survey scored it a little weaker, 6.5, downgrading its earlier estimate.<\/p>\n

According to the USGS, the quake was centered off Honshu Island, about 80 miles east-southeast of Namie and 175 miles east-northeast of Tokyo. It was seven miles deep.<\/p>\n

Nabhan believes the August and September dates coming up \u201cwould be even more apt\u201d for activity, especially in Southern California.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s good summer to make a public exploration of this deal,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Recognizing the impact of such a prediction on public preparedness and safety, Nabhan is \u201ccalling for this matter to be placed on the governor\u2019s desk.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is an advisory bureau that would be the perfect panels of experts to decide yes or no whether this is matter holds any water,\u201d he said, referring to the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council.<\/p>\n

He said Gov. Brown should call on the council for its opinion.<\/p>\n

U.S. lagging behind<\/b><\/p>\n

Nabhan admits he cannot, at this point, precisely predict quakes but only determine days and periods of higher probability. That said, he believes a precise prediction is fully possible, including time, magnitude and place.<\/p>\n

Nabhan has highlighted the lack of an early warning system in California. He said that although the region is now bringing a P-Wave warning system online, it is years behind places such as Bucharest, Istanbul, Tokyo, Taipei and Mexico City.<\/p>\n

P-Wave systems provide warning to citizens seconds before a quake occurs, giving them enough time to take cover and brace themselves.<\/p>\n

Nabhan says \u201cthis is one indication where foot dragging and nay-saying have held us back.\u201d<\/p>\n

Blaming the USGS for much of the problem, he said the agency has \u201ccastigated the press\u201d to promote a message of \u201cself-fulfilling nonsense.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThink back, when have you ever heard of a science discipline where they what they intended to do was impossible? What kind of airline system would we have if avionics has started off back in 1903 saying flying is impossible?\u201d he asked.<\/p>\n

\u201cMexico beat us to that punch, so did Turkey, so did Taipei,\u201d he said. \u201cPretty shocking isn\u2019t it?\u201d<\/p>\n

The great quakes on the U.S. West Coast north of Southern California fit the historic pattern described by Nabhan.<\/p>\n