{"id":62060,"date":"2017-01-03T15:48:00","date_gmt":"2017-01-03T19:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=62060"},"modified":"2017-01-03T15:51:58","modified_gmt":"2017-01-03T19:51:58","slug":"trump-and-putin-a-relationship-where-mutual-admiration-is-headed-toward-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=62060","title":{"rendered":"Trump and Putin: A relationship where mutual admiration is headed toward reality"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more--><div id=\"attachment_62064\" style=\"width: 685px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/05691982.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-62064\" class=\"wp-image-62064\" src=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/05691982.jpg\" width=\"675\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/05691982.jpg 1484w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/05691982-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/05691982-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/05691982-1024x682.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 675px) 100vw, 675px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-62064\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Depending on who you ask, Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, will find it easy to take advantage of Donald Trump\u2019s inexperience \u2014 or Trump will use his dealmaking skills to improve U.S.-Russia ties. (Michael Klimentyev \/Pool via European Pressphoto Agency)<\/p><\/div><\/p>\n<p>By Karen DeYoung and David Filipov<br \/>\nThe Washington Post<\/p>\n<p>For much of this year, Donald Trump and Vladi\u00admir Putin have been engaged in a long-distance courtship. They have said kind things about each other in public and separately expressed visions of a mutually agreeable future.<\/p>\n<p>Since Trump\u2019s election, the anticipation has become more explicit. It culminated this week in the U.S. president-elect\u2019s call for America to \u201c<a title=\"www.washingtonpost.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/post-politics\/wp\/2016\/12\/29\/after-obama-sanctions-russia-trump-says-its-time-to-move-on-to-bigger-and-better-things\/?utm_term=.4b2bace233f0\" shape=\"rect\">move on<\/a>\u201d from allegations of Russian electoral hacking, and the Russian president\u2019s blithe <a title=\"www.washingtonpost.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/russia-plans-retaliation-and-serious-discomfortoverus-hacking-sanctions\/2016\/12\/30\/4efd3650-ce12-11e6-85cd-e66532e35a44_story.html?utm_term=.b154f55cf516\" shape=\"rect\">pronouncement<\/a> Friday that he would rather plan for a new relationship with Trump than retaliate in kind to sanctions and expulsions ordered by outgoing President Obama.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGreat move on delay (by V. Putin),\u201d Trump <a title=\"www.washingtonpost.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/powerpost\/wp\/2016\/12\/30\/trump-praises-putins-response-to-sanctions-calls-russian-leader-very-smart\/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trump-putin-425pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&amp;utm_term=.c4ba7cb55b44\" shape=\"rect\">tweeted<\/a>. \u201cI always knew he was very smart!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But as with all such arms-length pairings, the looming question is whether Trump and Putin will find fulfillment or disappointment once face-to-face reality strikes.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. and Russian officials and experts are deeply divided over the answer. Some see Moscow playing Trump like a fiddle. The Kremlin \u201csees Trump\u2019s presidency as a net loss for the U.S. strategic position that Russia should take advantage of,\u201d said Vladi\u00admir Frolov, a Moscow-based analyst.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline-content inline-video\">\n<div id=\"player-c61b5ff0-ce26-11e6-85cd-e66532e35a44-903141\" class=\"posttv-video-embed wpv-player wpv-processed wpv-share-small\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.5621\" data-category-id=\"segments\" data-duration=\"160256\" data-emoji=\"0\" data-headline=\"What the U.S. measures against Russia mean for the relationship between the two countries\" data-is-truth-teller=\"0\" data-max-height=\"-1\" data-max-width=\"-1\" data-object-id=\"5865a9f9e4b09334a1b9ebfb\" data-show-caption=\"1\" data-show-endscreen=\"1\" data-show-posttv-overlay=\"1\" data-show-promo=\"http:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/posttv-thumbnails-prod\/12-30-2016\/t_1483057590037_name_20130617_obama_putin_thumbnail.jpg\" data-uuid=\"c61b5ff0-ce26-11e6-85cd-e66532e35a44\" data-variants=\"0\" data-video-360=\"0\" data-youtube-id=\"vTV95dx-WCY\" data-auto-init=\"0\" data-auto-play=\"1\" data-loading-screen=\"blackout\" data-has-been-visible=\"true\">\n<div class=\"wpv-overlay\">\n<div class=\"wpv-masthead\">\n<h3 class=\"wpv-headline franklin-light\">What the U.S. measures against Russia mean for the relationship between the two countries<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h5><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/video\/c\/embed\/c61b5ff0-ce26-11e6-85cd-e66532e35a44\" width=\"480\" height=\"290\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<span class=\"wpv-blurb\">The Post&#8217;s Karen DeYoung looks at the implications of the latest measures taken by the Obama administration against Russia and its interference in the U.S. election.<\/span>(Bastien Inzaurralde\/The Washington Post)<\/h5>\n<article>\n<div class=\"inline-content inline-video\"><\/div>\n<p>Others depict the Russians as genuinely willing to deal and cautiously optimistic about improved relations under a U.S. president who has none of the prejudices they see in the Obama administration.<\/p>\n<p class=\"interstitial-link\"><i>[<a title=\"www.washingtonpost.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/russia-plans-retaliation-and-serious-discomfortoverus-hacking-sanctions\/2016\/12\/30\/4efd3650-ce12-11e6-85cd-e66532e35a44_story.html?utm_term=.a403fdec75e6\" shape=\"rect\">Putin says he won\u2019t deport U.S. diplomats as he looks to cultivate relations with Trump<\/a>]<\/i><\/p>\n<p>While some fear that Trump has no firm understanding of the policy complications ahead and the threats posed by Russia, others say Trump the dealmaker may be just the right person to set relations back on a road to cooperation that will benefit U.S. national security.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has identified areas of shared U.S.-Russia interests, including counterterrorism in general \u2014 and rolling back the Islamic State in particular \u2014 as well as countering nuclear weapons proliferation. He has suggested that there are deals to be struck with Moscow on Syria and Ukraine, indicated that NATO\u2019s strong defensive posture on Russia\u2019s western border may be negotiable, expressed skepticism about sanctions \u2014 unless applied to Iran or North Korea \u2014 and implied that the fuss over Russian electoral hacking is overblown.<\/p>\n<p>Some of his pronouncements have huge policy gaps and contradictions. In Syria, for example, how would counterterrorism cooperation with Russia against the Islamic State influence Trump\u2019s plans to crack down on Russian ally Iran, which has its own interests in both Syria and Iraq?<\/p>\n<p>The first indication of policy substance may come two weeks from now, when Trump\u2019s nominee for secretary of state, <a title=\"wapo.st\" href=\"http:\/\/wapo.st\/2i37UtZ\" shape=\"rect\">Rex Tillerson<\/a> \u2014 the ExxonMobil chief executive who has argued that sanctions against Russia hurt U.S. business \u2014 appears before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Several Republican lawmakers, including committee Chairman Bob Corker (Tenn.), have said that any move to begin a new relationship with Russia by diluting or removing Ukraine-related sanctions is a nonstarter.<\/p>\n<p class=\"interstitial-link\"><i>[<a title=\"www.washingtonpost.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/powerpost\/wp\/2016\/12\/20\/senate-democrats-plan-to-run-trump-playbook-against-tillerson\/?utm_term=.8ac34b63c720\">Senate Democrats plan to run their Trump playbook against Tillerson<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n<p>Putin and his advisers have spoken about a desire to improve relations, although there is no Kremlin expectation that Inauguration Day will bring an overnight change. While pleased by the direction in which Trump appears to be moving, Moscow sees \u201cpolicy incoherence\u201d so far from the president-elect, said Thomas Graham, who served as senior Russia director on George W. Bush\u2019s National Security Council staff and is now managing director at Kissinger Associates.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf I read what the Russians have been saying, they don\u2019t expect relations to turn around quickly,\u201d Graham said in an interview. \u201cThey\u2019re surprised that on the Western side it\u2019s seen as if President Trump is going to hand over the keys to the barn to Russians.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But however disjointed and contradictory his shorthand policy prescriptions have seemed so far, \u201cthe vision in the Kremlin is that even though Trump is a novice in foreign policy, he has a record of striking deals that benefit him, as well as a team of experienced advisers,\u201d said Maxim A. Suchkov, an analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council, a Moscow think tank.<\/p>\n<p>Some Russian experts said the Kremlin realizes that if Trump moves too fast \u2014 especially in the wake of the hacking scandal \u2014 it would probably cause strong pushback from Congress and elsewhere. Instead, they see Putin\u2019s most recent actions as part of the pre-inauguration theater, preparing the ground for a hoped-for, but still uncertain, future.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPutin will play this as Obama acting like a deranged and spiteful madman, while Trump is a real gentleman who needs to be treated like a gent by Russia,\u201d Frolov said of Putin\u2019s low-key response to the sanctions and expulsions. The Russian president \u201cdoes not want to do anything that would make it even harder for Trump to move positively on Russia,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"interstitial-link\"><i>[<a title=\"www.washingtonpost.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/obama-administration-announces-measures-to-punish-russia-for-2016-election-interference\/2016\/12\/29\/311db9d6-cdde-11e6-a87f-b917067331bb_story.html?utm_term=.752f991c86d1\" shape=\"rect\">Obama administration announces measures to punish Russia for 2016 election interference<\/a>]<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Others detected a more nefarious strategy at work in Putin\u2019s gambit. \u201cI think it\u2019s brilliant,\u201d said Steve Hall, who ran Russia operations for the CIA before his retirement in 2015. \u201cIt solidifies the relationship and plays straight to Trump\u2019s ego. It allows Trump to say, \u2018See, the Obama administration is behaving childishly, and we need to act much more professionally.\u2019\u2009\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Putin, Hall said, is also probably maneuvering to gain maximum leverage over an incoming president whose constant touting of himself as a dealmaker makes him need a deal more than Moscow does. Now, he said, Putin can greet the new president by saying: \u201cYou still owe me one. I can pull that back and make you look like you\u2019re not the great negotiator you say you are.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Despite differences on how to deal with individual conflicts, think tanks across Washington have advised Trump to end the Obama-era policy of not talking to the Kremlin and to begin a new, across-the-board dialogue.<\/p>\n<p>On its own, \u201cdialogue won\u2019t be enough in and of itself over time,\u201d Andrew C. Kuchins, a senior fellow and research professor at the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, said in an interview. \u201cThe Trump folks would make a huge mistake if they unilaterally repealed sanctions. Congress would re-legislate them, creating a Jackson-Vanik situation,\u201d he said, referring to the 1974 law that restricted the president\u2019s ability to trade with Soviet Bloc countries that restricted human rights.<\/p>\n<p>After interviewing policymakers and experts in this country and in Russia, Kuchins this month issued a lengthy <a title=\"urldefense.proofpoint.com\" href=\"http:\/\/urldefense.proofpoint.com\/v2\/url?u=http-3A__globalinterests.org_wp-2Dcontent_uploads_2016_12_CGI-5FA-2DNew-2DRussia-2DPolicy-2Dfor-2DAmerica-5FAndy-2DKuchins.pdf&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=RAhzPLrCAq19eJdrcQiUVEwFYoMRqGDAXQ_puw5tYjg&amp;r=DbalnRXJNa4QthA_kOM3YbxpR1DyvlxRC7JKG07O53c&amp;m=WCqEV9pNX3136uMbXlldrQk_dkjtuEuMHOhuUAKBVpE&amp;s=O3ZetyBxXt02K77sQAL_ug_87YdWFlIr-0YURQxRI4s&amp;e=\" shape=\"rect\">report for the Center on Global Interests<\/a>, recommending an elevation of the U.S.-Russia relationship to the presidential level \u201cas incentive for Moscow to adjust and accommodate,\u201d and a bilateral renewal of dialogue on a range of issues, from arms control and terrorism to cybersecurity. At the same time, he wrote, a \u201ccalibrated\u201d approach must include a firm U.S. commitment to NATO allies and the continuation of a credible deterrent against Russian encroachments in Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is not a call for a \u2018reset\u2019 or a \u2018strategic partnership,\u2019\u2009\u201d Ku\u00adchins wrote, \u201cbut a reevaluation of the excessive risks the United States is running with the current downward trajectory of U.S.-Russia relations. Containment or deterrence alone cannot mitigate these risks.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, while emphasizing that he did not necessarily support it, outlined a possible play for Trump that would combine several policy priorities. \u201cYou could see a Trump administration potentially diminishing or suspending U.S. sanctions on Russia, working with the Europeans, recognizing the de facto annexation of Crimea, and making clear the United States is not going to permit Ukraine to join NATO or the European Union. It would be a signal to Putin that NATO expansion has stopped.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut at the same time,\u201d Dubowitz said, \u201cin exchange for what are significant concessions to Putin, you get agreement to roll back Iranian influence in Syria and to make changes\u201d to the Iran nuclear deal, which both the United States and Russia negotiated.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, experts stressed the need for transparency and communication on a range of issues that are now at a stalemate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t want this to spin out of control. We need to have conversations to understand what people are doing so that we don\u2019t misread each other,\u201d said Graham, who declined to comment on media reports that he is under consideration as Trump\u2019s ambassador to Moscow.<\/p>\n<p>The question, Graham said, is whether Trump has the patience to take his time. \u201cWill Trump understand that negotiations with Russia need to be from a position of strength? That means he needs to have the allies behind him. Are you, Trump, so enamored with Putin that you decide first thing you need to sit down and have a conversation, or do you do it the way other presidents did?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAre you going to see him at the end of a European trip, where you talk to the allies first and make sure you have a common understanding of the challenge, a common understanding of how you\u2019re going to deal with it? To then say: \u2018We\u2019re now going to sit down with you, Mr. Putin. .\u2009.\u2009. We\u2019re prepared to take your interests into account, but you also need to take our interests into account.\u2019\u2009\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI actually think the Russians may not expect that,\u201d Graham said. \u201cBut they would respect it and be able to deal with it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Filipov reported from Moscow. Greg Miller, Karoun Demirjian and Robert Costa in Washington contributed to this report.<\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/trump-and-putin-a-relationship-where-mutual-admiration-is-headed-toward-reality\/2016\/12\/30\/f900b3e2-cebd-11e6-b8a2-8c2a61b0436f_story.html?utm_term=.dd57f38ce2c6\">http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/trump-and-putin-a-relationship-where-mutual-admiration-is-headed-toward-reality\/2016\/12\/30\/f900b3e2-cebd-11e6-b8a2-8c2a61b0436f_story.html?utm_term=.dd57f38ce2c6<\/a><\/p>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62060"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62060\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}