If there\u2019s one thing that\u2019s certain in the intelligence business, it\u2019s that there\u2019s rarely any certainty.<\/strong><\/p>\n That\u2019s pretty much the first thing they teach you at spy school.<\/p>\n Back in the early days of my intelligence career, I had one instructor who explained it in a way that I\u2019ll never forget.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you present your analysis as if it\u2019s fact, instead of conjecture, the person who\u2019s relying on your intelligence could end up making a bad decision that gets people killed.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Intelligence is not about definitive conclusions. It\u2019s about gathering data and coming up with plausible theories that connect the dots.<\/p>\n Sadly, sometimes those theories are influenced by personal or political agendas.<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n Back in 2002-2003, the Bush White House had a pretty clear predisposition that Iraq possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs).<\/p>\n Miraculously, the intelligence reports conformed to that narrative.<\/p>\n And America went to war based on an \u201cunassailable conclusion\u201d from the intelligence community that Iraq had WMDs.<\/p>\n The facts were largely bogus, circumstantial at best. But this became the rallying cry behind every politician and media outlet\u2019s patriotic bloodlust.<\/p>\n How quickly they all forget.<\/p>\n Here we are today with a new assertion: those dastardly Russians hacked Hillary Clinton and the Democratic National Committee (DNC).<\/strong><\/p>\n I read it in the New York Times, so it must be true.<\/p>\n Once again there is a chorus of condemnation from the intelligence community and political establishment based on supposed rock-solid conclusions.<\/p>\n Yet once again the assertions are nothing more than theories that connect some very circumstantial dots.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the actual evidence<\/strong><\/u>:<\/p>\n The hacks were executed using two types of malware known as Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n (Yes that\u2019s what they\u2019re actually called.)<\/em><\/p>\n Fancy Bear is malware that takes a conventional \u201cphishing\u201d approach.<\/p>\n A phishing attack is when a hacker creates a web page that\u2019s almost an exact copy of one that you\u2019re used to.<\/p>\n For example, they\u2019ll create a website that looks like your bank\u2019s login page.<\/p>\n So if you click on a malicious link in your email that takes you to the fake page, you\u2019ll inadvertently supply a hacker with your bank username and password.<\/p>\n They\u2019ll then use that information to compromise your bank account.<\/p>\n Fancy Bear allowed hackers to gain access to private emails\u2026 primarily because the users at the DNC got duped into providing their login credentials.<\/p>\n Cozy Bear is the second piece of malware that installs itself on a computer, typically after a user clicks on a malicious web link.<\/p>\n One installed, the Cozy Bear malware deploys Remote Access Tools (known as RATs), providing a remote hacker access to the machine and its files.<\/p>\n If, however, Cozy Bear finds that the machine has advanced security software that could detect the malware and cause problems for the RATs, Cozy Bear will self-terminate.<\/p>\n So the first thing to point out here is that the DNC (and potentially the people who were administering Hillary\u2019s private email server) weren\u2019t maintaining the latest security patches and updates on their systems.<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n Someone at the DNC clicked on a malicious web link that installed the malware, and it didn\u2019t self-terminate because they weren\u2019t bothering to use advanced security software.<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n Duh.<\/p>\n This is a simple competence issue, and I\u2019m surprised it never came up in the news.<\/p>\n More importantly, Cozy Bear was used against the DNC as far back as summer 2015\u2026 as in just before, or right after, Donald Trump entered the race.<\/p>\n So it\u2019s hard for me to believe that Vladimir Putin was actively hacking the DNC to support a candidate that had barely (or not even yet) materialized.<\/strong><\/p>\n Most importantly, just because cybersecurity experts detected Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear doesn\u2019t mean that the Russians were behind the attacks.<\/p>\n These assertions aren\u2019t based on concrete facts; they\u2019re just speculating that Colonel Mustard did it in the library with the candlestick.<\/p>\n (Apologies to our readers who are too young to have played Clue.<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n But facts (or lack of facts) don\u2019t matter.<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n Whenever something bad happens, the US government blames Russia\u2026 and everyone believes it without taking any time to question the evidence.<\/p>\n It\u2019s as if we\u2019re living in some lame espionage movie from the 1980s where the Russians are always the bad guys.<\/strong><\/p>\n Look, I have absolutely zero regard for the Russian government (as is the case with just about every country\u2019s government).<\/p>\n But I find it almost hilariously short-sighted how quickly everyone rushes to judgment against the Russians. Or the Chinese. Or the North Koreans.<\/p>\n Sure, maybe the Russians did it. And I\u2019m happy to believe that\u2019s the case once clear evidence is presented.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n But it\u2019s worth acknowledging right now that their assertions are nowhere near conclusive.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s not like this is the first time in US history that the federal government or one of its intelligence agencies could be wrong\u2026 or\u2026 have a reason to lie.<\/p>\n It\u2019s notable that last week President Obama ordered the entire intelligence community to investigate the Russian hacks.<\/p>\n Given the Obama administration\u2019s numerous statements about the Russians\u2019 complicity, and the nonstop media coverage about the \u201cconclusive\u201d evidence, it\u2019s pretty clear that the outcome of the report is already pre-determined.<\/p>\n Just like the Iraq\/WMD analysis back in 2002-2003, this investigation is biased by the boss\u2019s predisposition that the Russians are guilty.<\/strong><\/p>\n What I find most disturbing, though, is how they can\u2019t let it go that the Russians influenced the election and manipulated voter sentiment.<\/p>\n I\u2019m sure we can all appreciate that the hacks, no matter who perpetrated them, constitute criminal activity.<\/p>\n But the information that was released as a result of the hacks shined a painful and embarrassing spotlight on the inner workings of the corrupt political establishment.<\/strong><\/p>\n So when the papers and politicians complain that the hacks influenced the election (as if the US government has never tried to influence a foreign election), they\u2019re really just whining that voters found out the truth.<\/p>\n They have that little respect for your dignity.<\/strong><\/p>\n![](\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user3303\/imageroot\/2016\/12\/12\/cozy.png\")
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