{"id":54673,"date":"2016-11-03T12:14:22","date_gmt":"2016-11-03T16:14:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=54673"},"modified":"2016-11-03T12:19:00","modified_gmt":"2016-11-03T16:19:00","slug":"a-key-stock-market-metric-suggests-a-donald-trump-victory-on-election-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=54673","title":{"rendered":"A key stock-market metric suggests a Donald Trump victory on Election Day"},"content":{"rendered":"


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\nPAMELA ENGEL
\nAOL Finance<\/p>\n

One metric has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984 \u2014 the strength of the S&P 500 Index.<\/p>\n

And right now, the S&P 500 is pointing to a Donald Trump victory on Election Day.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg<\/a> and CNBC<\/a> noted this week that the stock market’s decline does not bode well for Hillary Clinton, the nominee for the incumbent Democratic party.<\/p>\n

“Going back to World War II, the S&P 500 performance between July 31 and October 31 has accurately predicted a challenger victory 86% of the time when the stock market performance has been negative,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, told CNBC.<\/p>\n

When stocks are going up, the incumbent party tends to win the White House. But the S&P 500 is down 2.2% since the last trading day of July.<\/p>\n

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Still, this election has hardly abided by historical standards. And the downturn in the stock market could actually be a result of election anxiety.<\/p>\n

“This time around if the Democrats retain the White House, I will come up with two responses,” Stovall told CNBC. “One is that history is a guide but never gospel, and two, the negative performance by the market could be a reflection of the worry of domination that a Democratic sweep would bring.”\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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