{"id":53299,"date":"2016-10-23T21:09:07","date_gmt":"2016-10-24T01:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=53299"},"modified":"2016-10-23T21:09:07","modified_gmt":"2016-10-24T01:09:07","slug":"new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-for-rigging-polls-through-oversamples","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=53299","title":{"rendered":"New Podesta Email Exposes Dem Playbook For Rigging Polls Through “Oversamples”"},"content":{"rendered":"

ZeroHedge.com<\/p>\n

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC \/ Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary.\u00a0 Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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“METHODOLOGY \u2013 This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats – Republicans – Independents<\/strong>.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is no where near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily “rig” a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another.\u00a0 As a quick example, the ABC \/ WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters.\u00a0 Therefore, even a small “oversample” of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points<\/strong>.\u00a0 Moreover, the pollsters don’t provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to “fact check” the bias…convenient.<\/p>\n

\"ABC<\/p>\n

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Now, for all of you out there who still aren’t convinced that the polls are rigged, we present to you the following Podesta email<\/a>, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in startling detail, exactly how to rig them.\u00a0 The email starts out with a request for recommendations on “oversamples for polling” in order to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.”<\/strong><\/p>\n

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I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling<\/strong> before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations.\u00a0 In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Research, microtargeting & polling projects<\/em>
\n–\u00a0 Over-sample Hispanics<\/strong><\/em>
\n–\u00a0 Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)<\/em>
\n–\u00a0 Over-sample the Native American population<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For Florida, the report recommends “consistently monitoring” samples to makes sure they’re “not too old” and “has enough African American and Hispanic voters.”<\/strong>\u00a0 Meanwhile, “independent” voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.<\/p>\n

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–\u00a0 Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old<\/strong>, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters <\/strong>to reflect the state.<\/em>
\n–\u00a0 On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida<\/strong>(check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile, it’s suggested that national polls over sample “key districts \/ regions” and “ethnic” groups “as needed.”<\/strong>
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–\u00a0 General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts\/regions<\/strong><\/em>
\n–\u00a0 Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed<\/strong><\/em>
\n–\u00a0 Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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\"Oversample\"<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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And that’s how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.<\/p>\n

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Here is the full report of “Polling & Media Recommendations” from “The Atlas Project.”<\/a><\/p>\n