{"id":51945,"date":"2016-10-11T22:14:41","date_gmt":"2016-10-12T02:14:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=51945"},"modified":"2016-10-11T22:14:41","modified_gmt":"2016-10-12T02:14:41","slug":"first-post-debate-poll-gives-hillary-a-significant-lead-and-a-familiar-problem-emerges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=51945","title":{"rendered":"First Post-Debate Poll Gives Hillary A Significant Lead&#8230; And A Familiar Problem Emerges"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more-->ZeroHedge.com<\/p>\n<p>On Tuesday afternoon, a joint NBC\/WSJ poll <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/first-read\/post-debate-poll-shows-clinton-holding-9-point-lead-over-n664541\">revealed the first official polling results <\/a>following Sunday&#8217;s contentious debate. It found that in a 4 way race, Hillary Clinton held on to a 9 point lead over Donald Trump, with the support of 46% of likely voters, while Trump has 37%, Gary Johnson has 8% and Jill Stein has 2%.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">BREAKING: Clinton holds 9-point lead over Trump after second debate, NBC\/WSJ poll says  <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8ul7O8y87i\">https:\/\/t.co\/8ul7O8y87i<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0Gw0yhCcaD\">pic.twitter.com\/0Gw0yhCcaD<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/785903924737867779?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 11, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The lead grew even bigger to 10 points in a head to head scenario, or 50% to 40%.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user5\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/clinton%20trump%20head%20to%20head.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user5\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/clinton%20trump%20head%20to%20head_0.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"263\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The commentary was familiar, and is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-10-11\/latest-nbcwsj-poll-utter-nonsense\">largely a recap of the same poll conducted <\/a>over the weekend just prior to the poll:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div class=\"quote_start\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"quote_end\"><\/div>\n<p>The new numbers indicate that, while Clinton still bests Trump by a significant margin, Trump&#8217;s debate performance earned him a slight recovery in his overall level of support &#8212; particularly from Republicans &#8212; which appeared to be in freefall after Friday&#8217;s release of a 2005 audiotape of Trump&#8217;s sexually aggressive comments about touching and kissing women without their consent<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Here is the background:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div class=\"quote_start\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"quote_end\"><\/div>\n<p>The new data incorporate interviews that were conducted after Sunday night&#8217;s debate. Poll data released by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal on Monday, which only included interviews conducted before the debate, showed Clinton with a 11 point lead in a four-way contest and a 14-point lead in a head-to-head matchup.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That said, there was some modest pickup in Trump support coupled with a dip for Hillary. As NBC reported, &#8220;among only those respondents contacted after the debate, Clinton&#8217;s lead shrank to a seven point advantage in both a four-way matchup and in a head-to-head race &#8212; reflecting the same margin that Clinton showed in a mid-September NBC\/WSJ poll. After Sunday&#8217;s debate, Republicans also showed more support for Trump as their standard-bearer. Before the debate, <strong>67 percent of Republicans said that GOP House and Senate candidates should back Trump, a share that has now increased to nearly three-quarters &#8211; 74 percent, including 83 percent of Republicans reached post-debate on Monday<\/strong>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div class=\"quote_start\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"quote_end\"><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;After a weekend pause, Republicans once again consolidated in support of Trump,&#8221; said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, whose firm Public Opinion Strategies conducted this survey along with Democratic pollster Peter Hart.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Still, hardly the result the Trump campaign was expecting.<\/p>\n<p>However, just like in the most <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-10-11\/latest-nbcwsj-poll-utter-nonsense\">recent pre-debate NBC\/WSJ poll<\/a>, a familiar problem emerges.<\/p>\n<p>Recall that in the last NBC\/WSJ poll conducted over the weekend, the representation of those polled was notably skewed, leaning significantly to the left, with 43% Democrat and Democrat leaners, 36% Republican and Republican leaners, and 12% strictly Independents.<\/p>\n<p>Well, a quick look at the just released NBC poll reveals <a href=\"http:\/\/www.scribd.com\/document\/327216789\/Public-161027-NBCWSJ-October-N900-Poll-10-11-RELEASE\">precisely the same issue<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user5\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/post%20debate%201.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user5\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/post%20debate%201_0.jpg\" width=\"500\" height=\"223\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In yet another poll the distribution of the of those questioned leans <em>substantially to the left, <\/em>as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Democrat and Democrat leaners 44%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Republican and Republican leaners 37%\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Independents 12%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>(polling <a href=\"http:\/\/www.scribd.com\/document\/327216789\/Public-161027-NBCWSJ-October-N900-Poll-10-11-RELEASE\">details and methodology here<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>For a candidate as polarizing as Trump, having a 7 point disadvantage off the bat purely as a result of the poll&#8217;s construction, will certainly have an adverse impact.<\/p>\n<p>As for the balance, we will highlight the same issues that <a href=\"http:\/\/theconservativetreehouse.com\/\">The Last Refuge <\/a>pointed out overnight, which go to the fundamental reason why NBC polling may be compromised.<\/p>\n<p>First, a look at the polling organization, <a href=\"http:\/\/hartresearch.com\/\">Hart Associates, Public Opinion Strategies<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user230519\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/2016.10.11%20-%20WSJ%20Poll%203.JPG\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user230519\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/2016.10.11%20-%20WSJ%20Poll%203_0.JPG\" alt=\"NBC\/WSJ Poll\" width=\"500\" height=\"264\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hart Research Associates is headed up by Peter D Hart (founder), and Geoff Garin (President) \u2013 <a href=\"http:\/\/hartresearch.com\/team\/\">SEE HERE<\/a><\/p>\n<p>A quick look at what role Geoff Garin, Heart Research Associate President, is <strong>currently occupying<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/hartresearch.com\/team\/geoff-garin\/\">link here<\/a>):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user230519\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/2016.10.11%20-%20WSJ%20Poll%204.JPG\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user230519\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/2016.10.11%20-%20WSJ%20Poll%204_0.JPG\" alt=\"NBC\/WSJ Poll\" width=\"498\" height=\"367\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As the highlighted section notes, Geoff Garin, the President of Hart Research and Associates\u201d, is currently working as \u201c<strong>a strategic adviser for Priorities USA in support of Hillary Clinton\u2019s election<\/strong>\u201c.<\/p>\n<p>A slight conflict of interest.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But wait, it gets better.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s take a look at the recent financial connection between, Geoff<br \/>\nGarin, Hart Research Associates and Hillary Clinton\u2019s Priorities USA<br \/>\nSuper-PAC. For that information we turn to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fec.gov\/finance\/disclosure\/candcmte_info.shtml\">FEC filings -HERE-<\/a>.\u00a0 This is what they show.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user230519\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/2016.10.11%20-%20WSJ%20Poll%205.JPG\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user230519\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/2016.10.11%20-%20WSJ%20Poll%205_0.JPG\" alt=\"NBC\/WSJ Poll\" width=\"600\" height=\"332\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On Page #118 of the <a href=\"http:\/\/docquery.fec.gov\/pdf\/020\/201609209031038020\/201609209031038020.pdf\">September 2016 (most recent) filing<\/a> we find a payment for <strong>$178,500<\/strong> (screen grab above)<\/p>\n<p>On Page #92 of the same <a href=\"http:\/\/docquery.fec.gov\/pdf\/020\/201609209031038020\/201609209031038020.pdf\">September 2016 (most recent) filing<\/a>, we find another payment for <strong>$42,000<\/strong> (screen grab below)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user230519\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/2016.10.11%20-%20WSJ%20Poll%206.JPG\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user230519\/imageroot\/2016\/10\/10\/2016.10.11%20-%20WSJ%20Poll%206_0.JPG\" alt=\"NBC\/WSJ Poll\" width=\"600\" height=\"636\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>So to summarize:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>$220,500.00 in the month of September alone<\/strong> paid by Hillary Clinton\u2019s Priorities USA Super-PAC to Hart Research Associates.<\/li>\n<li>The President of Hart Research Associates, Geoff Garin, is working for Hillary Clinton\u2019s campaign.<\/li>\n<li>NBC (S Burke) and The WSJ (Murdoch) contact Geoff Garin (Hart<br \/>\nResearch Associates) for both the pre and post-debate poll data they will use on the<br \/>\nday following the debate.<\/li>\n<li>Hart Research Associates provides a small national poll sample (900)<br \/>\nresult, with significantly skewed party internals, showing Hillary Clinton, once again, leading by a material +10<br \/>\npoints in a head to head matchup.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Finally, let&#8217;s not forget that in the aftermath of the Trump Tape scandal, public attention has fallen on NBC itself as a prominent player involved in what may be the most scandalous leak in this presidential race yet <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2016\/10\/10\/media\/billy-bush-nbc-news\/\">as CNN reported yesterday<\/a>. Oh yes, and then there was the whole <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-10-10\/emails-expose-cnbcs-john-harwood-diligent-hillary-clinton-fanboy\">John Harwood thing<\/a>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Which is why for those looking for an objective, unconflicted scientific poll, may be better suited looking elsewhere. We <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-10-10\/emails-expose-cnbcs-john-harwood-diligent-hillary-clinton-fanboy\">assume John Harwood <\/a>will not be among them.<\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-10-11\/first-post-debate-poll-gives-hillary-significant-lead-and-familiar-problem-emerges#comment-8253681\">http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-10-11\/first-post-debate-poll-gives-hillary-significant-lead-and-familiar-problem-emerges#comment-8253681<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51945"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51945\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}