{"id":45386,"date":"2016-08-08T06:36:13","date_gmt":"2016-08-08T10:36:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=45386"},"modified":"2016-08-08T06:36:13","modified_gmt":"2016-08-08T10:36:13","slug":"sell-everything-but-why-what-has-the-smartest-investors-so-spooked","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=45386","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Sell Everything&#8221;&#8230; But Why: What Has The Smartest Investors So Spooked?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more-->ZeroHedge.com<\/p>\n<p><em>Submitted by Nick Colas of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.convergex.com\/\">Convergex <\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Many of the smartest investors out there hate stocks.\u00a0 Since May, we\u2019ve heard negative equity calls from Stan Druckenmiller, George Soros, Carl Icahn, Jeff Gundlach and Bill Gross.\u00a0 Wall Street lore says <strong>\u201cNever argue about markets with a guy who is much richer than you\u201d.\u00a0 <\/strong>So we\u2019ll take the discussion in a different direction: what do they know?<\/p>\n<p>Successful investors are always more plugged in than the market as a whole \u2013 hence their success.\u00a0 And while we can only guess at the lynchpins of their negative take on stocks, we do have some idea of how significant they must be.\u00a0 For example, in 2016 the S&amp;P 500 is up 5.9% on a price basis after <em><strong>1) the Brexit \u201cLeave\u201d vote, 2) dramatically disappointing Q1 and Q2 U.S. GDP, 3) a correction of 20% in oil prices, 4) a Fed that has incorrectly calibrated its public stance on monetary policy, 5) Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president, and 6) the U.S. 10 Year Treasury at near record low yields.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>None of that has been enough to spook U.S. equity markets.\u00a0 So whatever the big boys think they know, it must be really bad.\u00a0 But what is it, and why is it so hidden from view?<\/p>\n<p>* * *<\/p>\n<p>\u201c<strong>Someone is getting this information before you.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0 If you\u2019ve ever worked at a hedge fund, you know this is the worst thing you can hear.\u00a0 It means you are behind the curve, providing yesterday\u2019s news into an investment process meant to predict the future.\u00a0 \u201cTitanic sinks!\u201d or \u201cman lands on the moon!\u201d are the more playful retorts you\u2019ll get from co-workers.\u00a0 But it all means the same thing: up your game, or get a white box from the mail room.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So when a cluster of high-profile hedge fund and long-biased managers go out of their way to give dire warnings about the U.S. equity market with stocks sitting at or near all-time highs, any sensible investor needs to pay attention<\/strong>.\u00a0 These are people with access to information that most market participants could only dream of having.\u00a0 Former heads of state and central bankers, private intelligence operatives, senior government officials, the best consultants in any industry\u2026\u00a0 It is like having an all access pass to anything, anywhere, any time.<br \/>\nHere\u2019s a partial list of bold faced names that have panned stocks and other financial assets in recent weeks:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Stan Druckenmiller (May 4th at the Ira Sohn Conference): <\/strong>\u201cGet out of the stock market.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>George Soros (June 9th, as reported in the Wall Street Journal): <\/strong>\u201cThe billionaire hedge fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>Carl Icahn (June 9th, on CNBC):<\/strong> \u201cI don\u2019t think you can have (near) zero interest rates for much longer without having these bubbles explode on you\u201d while also saying it\u2019s difficult to assess when exactly that might occur.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Jeff Gundlach (last Friday, in an interview with Reuters)<\/strong>: \u201cSell everything. Nothing here looks good.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bill Gross (in his monthly investment letter, released last week<\/strong>): \u201cI don\u2019t like bonds. I don\u2019t like most stocks. I don\u2019t like private equity.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Fun fact: a group of bears is called a \u201csloth\u201d or a \u201csleuth\u201d.\u00a0 <\/strong>We can safely ignore the first reference; none of these investors made their considerable fortunes through laziness.\u00a0 That leaves us with \u201cSleuth\u201d \u2013 as in, what have they discovered?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Whatever it is, it has to be something weightier than the headlines we\u2019ve faced so far in 2016<\/strong>. The S&amp;P 500 is, after all, still up 5.9% on the year.\u00a0 And none of these headlines have tanked U.S. equities:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Donald Trump wins Republican nomination <\/strong>for President of the United States against a field of well-funded and well established competition<\/li>\n<li><strong>U.S. GDP growth fails to deliver on 2% growth through first half<\/strong>; runs 1.0% average instead<\/li>\n<li><strong>After a good run earlier in the year, crude oil prices experience correction and break $40\/barrel<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>One gold ETF draws the most fresh money of any exchange listed product YTD<\/strong>; yellow metal at +2 year highs<\/li>\n<li><strong>Global economic growth so sluggish that U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields reach 1.5%, <\/strong>far worse than even the depths of the Financial Crisis<\/li>\n<li><strong>Britain votes to leave the European Union<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>$<strong>13 trillion of global sovereign debt sports a negative yield<\/strong>, so great is the demand for \u201cSafe haven\u201d assets around the world<\/li>\n<li><strong>Federal Reserve guidance on future interest rate policy widely ignored<\/strong>. The U.S. central bank says 2 bumps to Fed Funds this year (25 bps apiece), but Fed Funds futures handicap less than one.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>There\u2019s no getting around it: that\u2019s a lot of unexpected news.\u00a0 <\/strong>The connection between them and higher stocks has exactly one point: bad news drives interest rates lower, and as long as the S&amp;P 500 earns +$115\/share those lower rates support ever loftier valuations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A bearish call, such as the ones our \u201cSleuth\u201d has made, must therefore convincingly pull the rug out from the \u201cLower rates = higher stocks\u201d paradigm.\u00a0 <\/strong>Don\u2019t tell me that these big-money investors are just making a valuation call \u2013 they all know better than that.\u00a0 Try walking into any of their offices and saying \u201cU.S. stocks trade at 18x earnings\u2026 Time to short em\u2026\u201d\u00a0 Your feet would barely touch the floor as security escorted you and your white mail room box out of the building.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No.\u00a0 It must be something larger.\u00a0 But what?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-08-07\/sell-everything-why-what-has-smartest-investors-so-spooked\">http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-08-07\/sell-everything-why-what-has-smartest-investors-so-spooked<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45386\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}