{"id":45286,"date":"2016-08-07T07:28:28","date_gmt":"2016-08-07T11:28:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=45286"},"modified":"2016-08-07T07:28:28","modified_gmt":"2016-08-07T11:28:28","slug":"reuters-baffled-as-clintons-lead-over-trump-suddenly-evaporates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=45286","title":{"rendered":"Reuters Baffled As Clinton&#8217;s Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more-->ZeroHedge.com<\/p>\n<div class=\"content\">\n<p><em><strong>We&#8217;re gonna need another polling methodology &#8216;tweak&#8217;&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Having seen her poll numbers suddenly explode higher (and Trump&#8217;s collapse) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-07-30\/clinton-lead-over-trump-surges-after-reuters-tweaks-poll\">following Reuters&#8217; decision to tweak its polling methodology,<\/a> it appears we just witnessed &#8216;Peak Hillary&#8217; as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN10G2BQ\">Reuters reports<\/a> <strong>Clinton&#8217;s lead over Trump has tumbled back to just 3 points<\/strong> <em>(the poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points)<\/em> meaning, as Reuters is forced to admit, that the results suggest<strong> the race is roughly even<\/strong>&#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div class=\"quote_start\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"quote_end\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton&#8217;s lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, <\/strong>according to a Reuters\/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, <strong>down from nearly eight points on Monday.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump&#8217;s 39 percent, <\/strong>according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points,<strong> meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even. <\/strong>Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Reuters tweaked data shows <strong>Hillary&#8217;s lead has peaked&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user3303\/imageroot\/2016\/08\/03\/20160806_ghillary.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user3303\/imageroot\/2016\/08\/03\/20160806_ghillary_0.jpg\" width=\"600\" height=\"209\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Reuters subtly points out the folly of their survey respondents<\/strong>&#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div class=\"quote_start\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"quote_end\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Clinton had pulled well ahead of Trump on the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, <\/strong>where she became the first woman to accept the U.S. presidential nomination from a major political party.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Since then, Trump has engaged in a days-long feud with the family of an American soldier killed in Iraq and squabbled with the Republican leadership over his comments and leadership turmoil within his campaign.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/2016\/president\/us\/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls\">But as RealClearPolitics&#8217; aggregated data shows,<\/a> the swings are dramatic to say the least&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user3303\/imageroot\/2016\/08\/03\/20160806_ghillary1_0.jpg\" width=\"600\" height=\"448\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The noise in these polling numbers is incredible and prompted<a href=\"http:\/\/mishtalk.com\/2016\/08\/04\/peak-hillary\/\"> <em><strong>MishTalk&#8217;s Mike Shedlock<\/strong><\/em><\/a> to take a caustic look at the prognostications of the web&#8217;s forecasters&#8230; Peter Atwater, President of Financial Insyghts and Author of <em>Moods and Markets<\/em> asked an interesting question today: <strong>\u201c<em>Have we reached peak Hillary yet<\/em>?\u201d<\/strong><span id=\"more-39904\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>In Atwater\u2019s tweet, he posted a flashback to this January 2014 <em>Time Magazine<\/em> cover.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mishgea.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/08\/time-hillary.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39905\" src=\"http:\/\/mishgea.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/08\/time-hillary.png?w=529\" alt=\"Time Hillary\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>The answer to the question \u201cCan anyone stop Hillary?\u201d is pretty obvious: Yes, Trump can easily win if he can ever learn to control his mouth (a recession hits or some dirt that matters comes out on Hillary that matters).<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<h3><u><strong>Ridiculous Forecasts<\/strong><\/u><\/h3>\n<p>I watch with amusement as Nate Silver posts his ridiculous forecasts on the <a href=\"http:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2016-election-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\">Presidential Election Odds<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mishgea.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/08\/silver-odds-2016-08-04.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-39906\" src=\"http:\/\/mishgea.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/08\/silver-odds-2016-08-04.png?w=529&amp;h=427\" alt=\"Silver Odds 2016-08-04\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Rest assured, Hillary does not have a 79% chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/mishgea.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/08\/silver-odds-2016-08-04a1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-39909\" src=\"http:\/\/mishgea.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/08\/silver-odds-2016-08-04a1.png?w=529&amp;h=227\" alt=\"Silver Odds 2016-08-04A\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Pure Idiocy<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Supposedly, Hillary has a 79.9% chance of winning in November as of today.<\/li>\n<li>Supposedly, Trump had a 50.1% chance of winning in November on July 31, just four days ago!<\/li>\n<li>Supposedly, Hillary had a 77.4% chance of winning in November on July 12.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>This is pure idiocy.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Silver is clearly taking the news of the day and projecting it out to November when voters clearly have a time span of about three days.<\/p>\n<p>How Silver can look himself in a mirror and make such widely varying off the wall predictions is a mystery.<\/p>\n<h3><u><strong>Social Mood<\/strong><\/u><\/h3>\n<blockquote>\n<div class=\"quote_start\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"quote_end\"><\/div>\n<p>Atwater had a second tweet today that is quite interesting&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\" title=\"Twitter Tweet\" width=\"300\" height=\"150\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"761317506518806529\"><\/iframe><strong>Social Mood is clearly in control here.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Silver is totally clueless about what social mood will be in November, just as he was totally clueless about social mood the entire Republican nomination process.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>*\u00a0 *\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>We leave it to Reuters themselves to conclude with their thoughts on the drop in Hillary&#8217;s support and revival of Trump&#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div class=\"quote_start\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"quote_end\"><\/div>\n<p><em><strong>The reasons behind the shift were unclear.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Unclear indeed.<\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-08-06\/peak-hillary-reuters-baffled-clintons-lead-over-trump-suddenly-evaporates\">http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-08-06\/peak-hillary-reuters-baffled-clintons-lead-over-trump-suddenly-evaporates<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45286\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}