If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.<\/h3>\n![\"Donald](\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/gettyimages-578664606.jpg\")
<\/a>Donald Trump. Chip Somodevilla\/Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n
That’s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday<\/a>for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.<\/p>\nIn his “Now-cast” election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.<\/p>\n
Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation’s highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.<\/p>\n
Silver’s model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver’s model.<\/p>\n
It’s the first time in Silver’s “Now-cast” forecast that Trump has been projected to win.<\/p>\n
However, in Silver’s polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were \u2014 hovering around 80%.<\/p>\n
Silver raised eyebrows Friday on Twitter when he pointed out “how plausible it is that Trump could become president.”<\/p>\n
\nDon't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.<\/p>\n
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 23, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n
<\/a>Donald Trump. Chip Somodevilla\/Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n
That’s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday<\/a>for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.<\/p>\n In his “Now-cast” election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.<\/p>\n Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation’s highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.<\/p>\n Silver’s model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver’s model.<\/p>\n It’s the first time in Silver’s “Now-cast” forecast that Trump has been projected to win.<\/p>\n However, in Silver’s polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were \u2014 hovering around 80%.<\/p>\n Silver raised eyebrows Friday on Twitter when he pointed out “how plausible it is that Trump could become president.”<\/p>\n Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.<\/p>\n — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 23, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n