{"id":38544,"date":"2016-05-22T13:14:48","date_gmt":"2016-05-22T17:14:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=38544"},"modified":"2016-05-22T13:14:48","modified_gmt":"2016-05-22T17:14:48","slug":"fbi-homeland-security-now-0-for-41-in-predicting-imminent-terrorist-attacks-on-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=38544","title":{"rendered":"FBI &#038; Homeland Security Now 0 For 41 In Predicting Imminent Terrorist Attacks On The US"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>from the <i>why-does-anyone-take-them-seriously<\/i> dept.<\/h3>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<div class=\"postbody\">I don&#8217;t have cable. I almost never watch TV. I never see cable news unless someone points me to a clip online. Yet apparently, with the extended holiday weekend this past weekend, cable news went <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2015\/jul\/06\/isis-cnn-terrorism-threat-hype-machine-government-pr\" target=\"_blank\">absolutely bonkers<\/a> with vague, unsubstantiated claims from government officials about how everyone should be on heightened alert for an attack from ISIS:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i>CNN has led the pack in whipping Americans into a panic over the Isis threat,<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2015\/06\/30\/politics\/fourth-of-july-terror-security\/\">running story after story<\/a> with government officials and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/videos\/tv\/2015\/06\/29\/terror-alerts-lead-chertoff-intv.cnn\">terrorism industry money-makers<\/a> hyping the threat, played against the backdrop of <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/adamjohnsonNYC\/status\/617879302059782144\">scary b-roll<\/a> of terrorist training camps. Former CIA deputy director Mike Morell ominously <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/videos\/tv\/2015\/06\/29\/terror-alerts-lead-chertoff-intv.cnn\">told CBS last week that<\/a> \u201cI wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we weren\u2019t sitting here a week from today talking about an attack over the weekend in the United States.\u201d MSNBC and Fox joined in too, <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/adamjohnsonNYC\/status\/617460536775716864\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">using graphics<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/FoxFriendsFirst\/status\/616545462473105408\">maps<\/a> right out of <a href=\"http:\/\/thecolbertreport.cc.com\/videos\/9opkqc\/doom-bunker---jack-jacobs-and-stephen-moore\">Stephen Colbert\u2019s satirical \u201cDoom Bunker,\u201d<\/a> suggesting World War III was just on the verge of reaching America\u2019s shores.<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The Morell appearance was particularly ridiculous, with it posting during the episode the following map of &#8220;recent ISIS arrests&#8221; in the US to emphasize the bullshit claim that ISIS was already in the US and plotting attacks:<center><a href=\"http:\/\/imgur.com\/o86lojl\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.imgur.com\/o86lojl.png\" width=\"500\" \/><\/a><\/center>The problem, of course, is that none of those arrests were really connected to ISIS in any serious way. Nearly all of them were actually plots <a href=\"http:\/\/www.techdirt.com\/blog\/?tag=own+plot\">cooked up by the FBI<\/a> to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.techdirt.com\/articles\/20150402\/15274630528\/fbi-uncovers-another-its-own-plots-senator-feinstein-responds-saying-we-should-censor-internet.shtml\">trick<\/a> gullible individuals that they were in on an ISIS plot.<\/p>\n<p>Before the weekend, Adam Johnson put together an astounding list of how Homeland Security and the FBI are <a href=\"http:\/\/fair.org\/home\/zero-for-40-at-predicting-attacks-why-do-media-still-take-fbi-terror-warnings-seriously\/\" target=\"_blank\">0 for 40 in their last 40 predictions for terrorist attacks inside the US<\/a> &#8212; raising serious questions about why the news media actually takes any of these &#8220;warnings&#8221; seriously. And that doesn&#8217;t even get into the fact that DHS and the FBI have <i>failed<\/i> to stop actual plots like the Boston bombing. Here&#8217;s the list that Johnson put together:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>October 2001: <\/strong>\u201cPotential use of <a title=\"ABC News\" href=\"http:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/story?id=92336\" target=\"_blank\">chemical\/biological and\/or radiological\/nuclear weapons<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n<p><strong>November 2001:<\/strong> <a title=\"The Guardian\" href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2001\/nov\/02\/september11.usa1\" target=\"_blank\">California bridges<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>February 2002: <\/strong><a title=\"ABC News\" href=\"http:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Entertainment\/story?id=102306\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cHollywood studios\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>May 2002:<\/strong> <a title=\"The Age\" href=\"http:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/articles\/2002\/05\/23\/1022038440389.html\" target=\"_blank\">Statue of Liberty<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>June 2002:<\/strong> <a title=\"NYT\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2002\/06\/30\/us\/new-fbi-alert-warns-of-threat-tied-to-july-4th.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cAround the Fourth of July holiday\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>July 2002:<\/strong> <a title=\"CBS News\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/fbi-alert-on-stadiums\/\" target=\"_blank\">Stadiums<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>August 2002:<\/strong> <a title=\"NYT\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2002\/08\/13\/us\/us-received-tip-on-qaeda-threats-against-landmarks.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cLandmarks\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>October 2002:<\/strong> \u201cAQ to attack <a title=\"LA Times\" href=\"http:\/\/articles.latimes.com\/2002\/oct\/27\/news\/adna-terrorwarning27\" target=\"_blank\">Amtrak<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>November 2002:<\/strong> \u201c<a title=\"CNN\" href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2002\/US\/11\/15\/terror.warning\/\" target=\"_blank\">Spectacular Al Qaeda attacks<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>February 2003: <\/strong>\u201cA<a title=\"CNN\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2003\/US\/02\/07\/threat.level\/\" target=\"_blank\">partments, hotels, sports arenas and amusement parks<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n<p><strong>May 2003:<\/strong>\u00a0<a title=\"CNN\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2003\/US\/05\/20\/terror.main\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cPossibility of multiple attacks\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>May 2004:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cAttempt to affect the outcome\u201d of <a title=\"CNN\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2004\/US\/05\/25\/terror.threat\/\" target=\"_blank\">presidential election<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>July 2004: <\/strong>\u201cMilitary facilities and large gatherings\u201d on\u00a0<a title=\"Washington Times\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2004\/jun\/29\/20040629-104133-1660r\/?page=all\" target=\"_blank\">July 4th<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>August 2004:<\/strong> <a title=\"USA Today\" href=\"http:\/\/usatoday30.usatoday.com\/news\/washington\/2004-08-27-terror-va_x.htm\" target=\"_blank\">VA hospitals<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>January 2005:<\/strong> <a title=\"Boston Globe\" href=\"http:\/\/www.boston.com\/news\/local\/articles\/2005\/01\/20\/6_sought_after_tip_alleging_dirty_bomb\/?page=full\" target=\"_blank\">Dirty bomb<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>March 2005:<\/strong>\u00a0<a title=\"Christian Science Monitor\" href=\"http:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/2005\/0322\/p01s01-uspo.html\" target=\"_blank\">US\/Mexican border<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>October 2005:<\/strong> NYC &amp; Baltimore <a title=\"NYT\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2005\/10\/07\/nyregion\/new-york-named-in-terror-threat-against-subways.html\" target=\"_blank\">subways<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>March 2006:<\/strong> <a title=\"ABC News\" href=\"http:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/WNT\/story?id=1711158\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cSporting events\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>June 2007:<\/strong>\u00a0<a title=\"Boston Globe\" href=\"http:\/\/www.boston.com\/news\/education\/higher\/articles\/2007\/06\/12\/fbi_warns_colleges_of_terror_threat\/\" target=\"_blank\">Colleges<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>December 2007:<\/strong> \u201c<a title=\"ABC News\" href=\"http:\/\/blogs.abcnews.com\/theblotter\/2007\/11\/exclusive-fbi-a.html\" target=\"_blank\">Shopping malls<\/a> in Chicago and LA\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>November 2008:<\/strong> \u201cAl Qaeda to attack <a title=\"Telegraph\" href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/worldnews\/northamerica\/usa\/3526660\/FBI-warns-of-Thanksgiving-terrorist-threat.html\" target=\"_blank\">transit during Thanksgiving<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>November 2010:<\/strong> <a title=\"Reuters\" href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2008\/11\/27\/us-usa-threat-newyork-idUSTRE4AP5U220081126\" target=\"_blank\">Mass transit in New York City<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>October 2011:<\/strong> \u201cAmericans in Europe\u201d facing\u00a0<a title=\"BBC\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-us-canada-11460335\" target=\"_blank\">\u201ccommando-style AQ attack\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>February 2011:<\/strong> <a title=\"Bloomberg\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2011-02-01\/fbi-says-it-told-new-york-finance-firms-of-non-specific-al-qaeda-threat\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cFinancial institutions\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>May 2011:<\/strong> <a title=\"CNN\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2011\/WORLD\/asiapcf\/05\/02\/bin.laden.precautions\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThreats of retaliation\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>June 2011:<\/strong>\u00a0Al Qaeda <a title=\"The Wire\" href=\"http:\/\/www.thewire.com\/national\/2011\/06\/report-fbi-issues-warning-about-40-person-al-qaeda-hit-list\/38960\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u201chit list\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>July 2011:<\/strong> <a title=\"CBS Local\" href=\"http:\/\/losangeles.cbslocal.com\/2011\/07\/01\/report-fbi-warns-of-al-qaida-threats-against-monrovia-aircraft-execs\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cP<\/a><a title=\"CBS Local\" href=\"http:\/\/losangeles.cbslocal.com\/2011\/07\/01\/report-fbi-warns-of-al-qaida-threats-against-monrovia-aircraft-execs\/\" target=\"_blank\">rivate jets of executives\u201d<\/a>\u00a0involved in drone manufacturing<\/p>\n<p><strong>September 2011:<\/strong> <a title=\"WILA\" href=\"http:\/\/www.wjla.com\/articles\/2011\/09\/fbi-warns-about-terror-threats-to-small-planes-66079.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cSmall planes\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>September 2011:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cNew York City or Washington around\u2026<a title=\"CNN\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2011\/US\/09\/09\/us.threat.bulletin\/\" target=\"_blank\">10th anniversary of 9\/11<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>September 2011:\u00a0<\/strong><a title=\"CBS Local\" href=\"http:\/\/sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com\/2011\/09\/04\/homeland-security-warns-airports-against-new-al-qaeda-threat\/\" target=\"_blank\">Airports<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>March 2012:<\/strong> <a title=\"NYT\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/03\/08\/us\/fbi-director-warns-about-terrorist-hacking.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cTerrorist hacking\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>August 2012:<\/strong> Anarchists <a title=\"Business Insider\" href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/rnc-terrorism-republican-convention-anarchists-fbi-security-tampa-florida-2012-8\" target=\"_blank\">blowing up bridge<\/a> during Tampa RNC<\/p>\n<p><strong>September 2012:<\/strong> \u201cIslamic <a title=\"NYT\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/03\/08\/us\/fbi-director-warns-about-terrorist-hacking.html\" target=\"_blank\">violence over movie<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>August 2013:<\/strong> \u201cSan Fransisco on <a title=\"ABC News\" href=\"http:\/\/abc7news.com\/archive\/9195195\/\" target=\"_blank\">high alert<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>November 2013:<\/strong> <a title=\"Washington Post\" href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/fbi-director-warns-of-cyberattacks-other-security-chiefs-say-terrorism-threat-has-altered\/2013\/11\/14\/24f1b27a-4d53-11e3-9890-a1e0997fb0c0_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u201ccyber attacks\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>April 2014:<\/strong> <a title=\"FBI.gov\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fbi.gov\/news\/stories\/2014\/april\/students-abroad-warned-of%20foreign-intelligence-threat\/students-abroad-warned-of%20foreign-intelligence-threat\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cCollege students abroad\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>December 2014:<\/strong> ISIS targeting <a title=\"Reuters\" href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/12\/23\/us-usa-fbi-threat-idUSKBN0K117P20141223\" target=\"_blank\">Mississippi River bridge<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>December 2014:<\/strong> ISIS \u201csabotaging <a title=\"Christian Headlines\" href=\"http:\/\/www.christianheadlines.com\/blog\/fbi-issues-warning-of-isis-threat-on-social-media.html\" target=\"_blank\">US military personnel<\/a>\u201d over social media<\/p>\n<p><strong>April 2015:<\/strong>\u00a0ISIS targeting \u201c<a title=\"CNN\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2015\/04\/25\/us\/possible-isis-inspired-threat\/\" target=\"_blank\">parts of California<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>May 2015:<\/strong> ISIS targeting \u201c<a title=\"Al.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.al.com\/news\/index.ssf\/2015\/05\/fbi_isis_poses_near-term_threa.html\" target=\"_blank\">military bases<\/a>\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And now we can add this past weekend, making them 0 for 41.<\/p>\n<p>Johnson highlights three reasons why these warnings still get issued:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The FBI has all the incentive in the world to issue warnings and no incentive whatsoever to<i>not <\/i>issue warnings. Issuing warnings has no downside, while not doing so is all downside.<\/li>\n<li>The FBI, like all agencies of the government, does not operate in a political vacuum. Emphasizing the \u201cISIS threat\u201d at home necessarily helps prop up the broader war effort the FBI\u2019s boss, the president of the United States, must sell to a war-weary public. The incentive is to therefore highlight the smallest threats. This was a feature that <a title=\"Huffington Post: Tom Ridge: I Was Pressured To Raise Terror Alert To Help Bush Win\" href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/2009\/08\/20\/tom-ridge-i-was-pressured_n_264127.html\" target=\"_blank\">did not go unnoticed<\/a> during the Bush years, but has since fallen out of fashion.<\/li>\n<li>It has no actual utility. What does it mean to be \u201cmore vigilant\u201d? It\u2019s a vague call to alertness that officials, aside from\u00a0\u201cbeefing up security\u201d by local police, never quite explain what it means. If the FBI wanted to tell local police departments to up their security of the 4th of July weekend, surely they could do so quietly, without the chair of the House Committee on Homeland Security\u00a0having to\u00a0go on all major networks talking over b-roll of ISIS in apocalyptic terms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There&#8217;s also one other reason which is related to the first reason above, but is slightly different: <i>if<\/i>there is actually a big terrorist attack (and not one they can wave off), DHS and FBI officials will be hauled before Congress and asked why they didn&#8217;t spot it or warn about it. So this is, once again, an example of officials wanting to cover their own asses. As we noted recently in explaining why surveillance state defenders <a href=\"http:\/\/www.techdirt.com\/articles\/20150408\/12442930594\/why-dont-surveillance-state-defenders-seem-to-care-that-programs-they-love-dont-work.shtml\">don&#8217;t care<\/a> that the programs they defend don&#8217;t work, a lot of the mental calculus involves covering their own asses in the event something bad does happen. No one wants to have to explain that what they did was useless, so they feel the need to &#8220;do something.&#8221; Combine that with the near total lack of downside, and of course, there are going to be random predictions based on nothing.<\/p>\n<p>So the real question, though, is how come cable news feels the need to fall for it too? As Tevor Timm notes, all this really does is help terrorists in &#8220;terrorizing&#8221; the American public:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i>All of this doesn\u2019t mean that a terrorist attack on US won\u2019t eventually happen. Simple math tells us that, no matter the precautions taken or the civil liberties taken away, one may get through. But it is a rare event, and one which human beings have lived with throughout our history. By magnifying it and terrifying everyone, we\u2019re only doing the terrorists\u2019 job for them.<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And the cable news teams are helping this right along&#8230;<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"postbody\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"postbody\">___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.techdirt.com\/articles\/20150706\/23473631567\/fbi-homeland-security-now-0-41-predicting-imminent-terrorist-attacks-us.shtml\">http:\/\/www.techdirt.com\/articles\/20150706\/23473631567\/fbi-homeland-security-now-0-41-predicting-imminent-terrorist-attacks-us.shtml<\/a><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>from the why-does-anyone-take-them-seriously dept.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38544\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}