{"id":35256,"date":"2016-04-06T13:47:36","date_gmt":"2016-04-06T17:47:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=35256"},"modified":"2016-04-06T13:50:03","modified_gmt":"2016-04-06T17:50:03","slug":"carbon-delusions-and-defective-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=35256","title":{"rendered":"Carbon delusions and defective models"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more-->By Viv Forbes<br \/>\nAmerican Thinker<\/p>\n<div class=\"article_body\">\n<p>The relentless war on carbon is justified by the false assumption that global temperature is controlled by human production of two carbon-bearing &#8220;greenhouse gases.&#8221;\u00a0 The scary forecasts of runaway heating are based on complicated but narrowly focused carbon-centric computerized global circulation models built for the U.N. IPCC. \u00a0These models omit many significant climate factors and rely heavily on dodgy temperature records and unproven assumptions about two trace natural gases in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19923\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19924\">The models fail to explain Earth&#8217;s long history of changing climates and ignore the powerful role of interacting cycles in the solar system, which determine how much solar energy is absorbed and reflected by Earth&#8217;s atmosphere, clouds, and surface. \u00a0Several ancient societies and some modern mavericks, without help from million-dollar computers, recognized that the Sun, Moon, and major planets produce cyclic changes in Earth&#8217;s climate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19925\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19926\">The IPCC models also misread the positive and negative temperature feedback from water vapor (the main greenhouse gas), and their accounting for natural processes in the carbon cycle is based on very incomplete knowledge and numerous unproven assumptions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19930\"><em id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19929\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19928\">See: Errors in the IPCC Global Circulation Models:<br \/>\n<a id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19927\" href=\"http:\/\/jo.nova.s3.amazonaws.com\/guest\/david-evans\/media-release-evans-climate.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/jo.nova.s3.amazonaws.com\/guest\/david-evans\/media-release-evans-climate.pdf<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"http:\/\/sciencespeak.com\/climate-basic.html\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/sciencespeak.com\/climate-basic.html<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The dreaded &#8220;greenhouse gases&#8221; (carbon dioxide and methane) are natural gases. \u00a0Man did not create them \u2013 they occur naturally in comets and planets and have been far more plentiful in previous atmospheres on Earth. \u00a0They are abundant in the oceans and the atmosphere and are buried in deposits of gas, oil, coal, shale, methane clathrates, and vast beds of limestone. \u00a0Land and sea plants absorb CO2, and micro-organisms absorb methane in deep oceans.<\/p>\n<p>Earth emits natural carbon-bearing gases in huge and largely unknown and unpredictable quantities. \u00a0Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and various hydrocarbons such as ethane, methane, and propane bubble out of the ocean floor; seep out of swamps; bubble naturally out of rivers; are released in oil seeps, water wells, and bores; and are sometimes delivered via water pipes into drinking water.\u00a0 They are also released whenever carbon-bearing rocks such as coal and shale are eroded naturally, catch fire, or are disturbed by earthquakes, construction activities, or mining. \u00a0The vast offshore deposits of frozen methane are released naturally when geothermal heat or volcanic intrusions melt the ice containing the methane.<\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_21366\"><em id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_21365\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_21364\">See: Widespread methane leakage from ocean floor off US coast:<br \/>\n<a id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_21363\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/science-environment-28898223\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/science-environment-28898223<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Earth also entombs carbon in sediments and organic matter transported from the land by rivers and buried in swamps and deltas, or swept from the land into the oceans by typhoons and tsunamis. \u00a0These will eventually become limestone, shale, and coal deposits, probably containing fossil evidence of a long-gone human era.<\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19956\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19955\">Recent measurements of the distribution of carbon dioxide over the surface of the Earth produced surprises \u2013 several of the heavy concentrations of carbon dioxide do not follow man&#8217;s heavy industry, but occur over places like the Congo, Indonesia, and the Amazon (possibly seasonal emanations from soil or forests).<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19960\"><em id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19959\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19958\">See: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Distribution from the OCO2 Satellite:<br \/>\n<a id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19957\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com.au\/search?q=oco-2+data&amp;espv=2&amp;biw=1920&amp;bih=955&amp;tbm=isch&amp;tbo=u&amp;source=univ&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwisnPqglu3LAhWGL6YKHcEmCoAQsAQIMg#imgrc=kRW3ayOOn1mbqM%3A\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.google.com.au\/search?q=oco-2+data&amp;espv=2&amp;biw=1920&amp;bih=955&amp;tbm=isch&amp;tbo=u&amp;source=univ&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwisnPqglu3LAhWGL6YKHcEmCoAQsAQIMg#imgrc=kRW3ayOOn1mbqM%3A<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Earth&#8217;s crust is flexed daily by the gravity-driven Earth tide \u2013 this movement opens and shuts joints and pores in rocks and soil and allows Earth gases to be squeezed toward the surface. \u00a0The crust is also dragged, raised, and lowered by sub-surface movements, which release more trapped gases.<\/p>\n<p>Volcanic activity produces large but variable emissions of carbon dioxide, particularly if igneous rocks intrude beds of coal, oil, shale, or limestone. \u00a0The periodic massive outpourings of undersea basalts along the mid-ocean ridges cause large oceanic degassing.<\/p>\n<p>Oceans and the biosphere are wild cards in the carbon cycle. Warming oceans, rotting vegetation, ruminants, and termites all expel large and unmeasured quantities of carbon-bearing gases. \u00a0And cooling oceans and growing animals and plants take up carbon compounds. \u00a0And if there is more CO2 in the atmosphere, oceans and plants will take up more, thus providing a natural stabilizing effect. \u00a0Eucalypt forests extract carbon dioxide for growth but also emit hydrocarbons from leaves, producing the blue haze on distant hills on hot days. \u00a0Soil carbon comes and goes depending on weather, biological activity, and farm management practices.<\/p>\n<p>Where are the measurements of the production and consumption of atmospheric carbon compounds by the vast herds of antelopes and reindeer, cattle and sheep, or zebra and wildebeest? \u00a0Who measures the effects of termites and locusts, droughts and floods, bushfires and biofuel plantations, bacteria and fungi, algae and krill, seaweeds and sardines, oceans and volcanoes, grasslands and forests, decomposing rocks, sedimentation and underground waters? \u00a0And what about the heat and CO2 generated, and the waste products buried, by huge cities?<\/p>\n<p>Earth&#8217;s total supply of carbon does not change \u2013 it just moves continually around the great carbon cycle residing temporarily as gases, liquids, or solids in the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and lithosphere.<\/p>\n<p>Currently the supplies of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are recovering gently from record lows. \u00a0No one knows exactly where it is all coming from, but limited measurements and extrapolations indicate that about 96% of the CO2 added annually to the atmosphere is from nature. \u00a0The only part of the carbon cycle that is measured with reasonable accuracy is the remaining 4%\u00a0of atmospheric CO2 produced through man&#8217;s recycling of coal, oil, and gas.<\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19950\"><em id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19949\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19948\">See: Most of CO2 rise comes from natural sources:<br \/>\n<a id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19947\" href=\"http:\/\/notrickszone.com\/2013\/03\/02\/most-of-the-rise-in-co2-likely-comes-from-natural-sources\/#sthash.moKAPaHR.dpbs\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/notrickszone.com\/2013\/03\/02\/most-of-the-rise-in-co2-likely-comes-from-natural-sources\/#sthash.moKAPaHR.dpbs<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>We are asked to believe that we can use dubious estimates and forecasts of this one small component of the carbon cycle as the main input for computer models claimed to forecast future climate for decades ahead.<\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19945\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1459912223044_19944\">To use such dodgy forecasts to justify disruptive energy policies is a costly delusion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.americanthinker.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/carbon_delusions_and_defective_models.html#ixzz454NtF7Zf\">http:\/\/www.americanthinker.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/carbon_delusions_and_defective<br \/>\n_models.html#ixzz454NtF7Zf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35256\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}