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<\/a>\u00a9Matt Kenyon<\/p><\/div>\n
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B<\/span>ush or Clinton? Two devils you know. For years people have discounted America\u2019s next presidential choice. Yet Marco Rubio<\/span><\/a>, the 44-year-old Cuban-American from Florida, is rattling assumptions. Those who say the US would never choose a first-term senator over more experienced rivals have forgotten Barack Obama. Those who be\u00adlieve a minority candidate would have trouble winning the Republican nomination may be equally deluded. Conventional wisdom is unshakeable until it is proved wrong. No US politician today is better positioned to do so than Mr Rubio.<\/span><\/p>\n There is no need to take my word for it: read the signals from the Hillary and Jeb campaigns<\/span><\/a>. In her first big speech since declaring, Mrs Clinton last week trained her sights on Mr Rubio, rather than Mr Bush<\/span><\/a>, a clear sign of whom she most fears. But she did so awkwardly. Two months after Mr Rubio launched his bid with a speech that referred to Mrs Clinton as the candidate of \u201cyesterday\u201d, the former first lady quoted the eponymous Beatles song in an attempt to rebut the Miami upstart. It was not her best oratory. The Beatles broke up before Mr Rubio was born. Mrs Clinton did not take any sideswipes at Mr Bush.<\/span><\/p>\n More<\/span><\/p>\n ON THIS TOPIC<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n EDWARD LUCE<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n Sign up now<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n First<\/i>FT is our new essential daily email briefing of the best stories from across the web<\/span><\/p>\n In his own launch last week, Mr Bush did take an obligatory swing at Mrs Clinton. But his mind was clearly on Mr Rubio. The former governor of Florida, who also staged his launch in Miami, was introduced as \u201cthe Florida Republican who can win\u201d. There was no point in \u201celecting the people who either helped create [a broken Washington] or have proven incapable of fixing it\u201d, said Mr Bush. His remark incorporated Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, the two other senators who are running. Unlike Mr Rubio, neither is in the first rank of Republican hopefuls. Scott Walker, the other Republican frontrunner (polls confine the premier league to him, Mr Bush and Mr Rubio), last week said he would choose Mr Rubio as his running mate. What better way to sideline your chief rival?<\/span><\/p>\n White House campaigns are heavily shaped by biography and charisma. Mr Rubio has a potent mix of both. His personal story could hardly be further removed from that of Mrs Clinton and Mr Bush. If their tales symbolise dynasty, Mr Rubio\u2019s is from Horatio Alger. To his followers, he personifies the American dream. The son of \u00adimmigrants, Mr Rubio\u2019s father was a full-time bartender while his mother worked variously as a cleaner, a cashier and a chain store stock clerk. Audiences never tire of hearing Mr Rubio\u2019s line about his father tending bar at the back of the ballroom \u201cso that one day his son could stand at a podium in the front\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n Both Mrs Clinton and Mr Bush show a detailed grasp of the crisis besetting America\u2019s middle class \u2014 the uber-theme of next year\u2019s election. Mr Rubio has direct experience of it. Between the Bush and Clinton campaigns there is an unspoken assumption that the other would cancel out their plutocratic vulnerabilities. Mr Rubio will exploit both to the hilt. Then there is the age gap. At a time of cynicism about the brokenness of US politics, brand fatigue is a problem. Youth comes at a premium. So do movie star looks. \u201cYesterday is over,\u201d says Mr Rubio. \u201cWe must change the decisions we are making by changing the people who are making them.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The headline polls may understate Mr Rubio\u2019s advantage. Alone among candidates on either side, he has positive favourability<\/span><\/a> among Republican and Democratic voters. At 57 per cent among Republican primary voters he is way ahead of Mr Bush (37 per cent). Although Mr Bush leads marginally in voters\u2019 first preference, Mr Rubio tops the second choice rankings. In a fragmented field, that could count for a lot. Finally, Mr Rubio is neck and neck with Mr Bush in the key swing states, including Ohio and Florida, and comes closest of any Republican to defeating<\/span><\/a> Mrs Clinton in a head-to-head matchup.<\/span><\/p>\n\n
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