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<\/a><\/p>\nObama Sidelines Kerry On Ukraine Policy<\/strong><\/p>\n On May 21st, I headlined “Secretary of State John Kerry v. His Subordinate Victoria Nuland, Regarding Ukraine<\/a>,\u201d and quoted John Kerry\u2019s May 12th warning to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to cease his repeated threats to invade Crimea and re-invade Donbass, two former regions of Ukraine, which had refused to accept the legitimacy of the new regime that was imposed on Ukraine in violent clashes during February 2014. (These were regions that had voted overwhelmingly for the Ukrainian President who had just been overthrown. They didn\u2019t like him being violently <\/a>tossed out and replaced by his enemies.)<\/p>\n Kerry said then that, regarding Poroshenko, “we would strongly urge him to think twice not to engage in that kind of activity, that that would put Minsk in serious jeopardy. And we would be very, very concerned about what the consequences of that kind of action at this time may be.\u201d Also quoted there was Kerry\u2019s subordinate, Victoria Nuland, three days later, saying the exact opposite, that we “reiterate our deep commitment to a single Ukrainian nation, including Crimea, and all the other regions of Ukraine.\u201d I noted, then that, “The only person with the power to fire Nuland is actually U.S. President Barack Obama.\u201d However, Obama instead has sided with Nuland on this.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, bannered, on June 5th, “Poroshenko: Ukraine Will ‘Do Everything’ To Retake Crimea<\/a>‘,\u201d and reported that, \u201cPresident Petro Poroshenko has vowed to seek Crimea’s return to Ukrainian rule. \u2026 Speaking at a news conference on June 5, \u2026 Poroshenko said that ‘every day and every moment, we will do everything to return Crimea to Ukraine.\u2019\u201d Poroshenko was also quoted there as saying, “It is important not to give Russia a chance to break the world’s pro-Ukrainian coalition,\u201d which indirectly insulted Kerry for his having criticized Poroshenko\u2019s warnings that he intended to invade Crimea and Donbass.<\/p>\n Right now, the Minsk II ceasefire has broken down and there are accusations on both sides that the other is to blame. What cannot be denied is that at least three times, on April 30th, then on May 11th, and then on June 5th, Poroshenko has repeatedly promised to invade Crimea, which wasn\u2019t even mentioned in the Minsk II agreement; and that he was also promising to re-invade Donbass, something that is explicitly prohibited in this agreement. Furthermore, America\u2019s President, Barack Obama, did not fire Kerry\u2019s subordinate, Nuland, for her contradicting her boss on this important matter.<\/p>\n How will that be taken in European capitals? Kerry was reaffirming the position of Merkel and Hollande, the key shapers of the Minsk II agreement; and Nuland was nullifying them. Obama now has sided with Nuland on this; it\u2019s a slap in the face to the EU: Poroshenko can continue ignoring Kerry and can blatantly ignore the Minsk II agreement; and Obama tacitly sides with Poroshenko and Nuland, against Kerry.<\/p>\n The personalities here are important: On 4 February 2014, in the very same phone-conversation with Geoffrey Pyatt<\/a>, America\u2019s Ambassador in Ukraine, in which Nuland had instructed Pyatt to get \u201cYats\u201d Yatsenyuk appointed to lead Ukraine after the coup (which then occured 18 days later), she also famously said \u201cF\u2014k\u00a0 the EU!\u201d Obama is now seconding that statement of hers.<\/p>\n In effect, Obama is telling the EU that they can get anything they want signed, but that he would still move forward with his own policy, regardless of whether or not they like it.<\/p>\n Kerry, for his part, now faces the decision as to whether to quit \u2014 which would force the EU\u2019s hand regarding whether to continue with U.S. policy there \u2014 or else for Kerry to stay in office and be disrespected in all capitals for his staying on after having been so blatantly contradicted by his subordinate on a key issue of U.S. foreign policy. If he stays on while Nuland also does, then, in effect, Kerry is being cut out of policymaking on Europe and Asia (Nuland\u2019s territory), altogether, and the EU needs to communicate directly with Obama on everything, or else to communicate with Nuland as if she and not Kerry were the actual U.S. Secretary of State. But if Kerry instead quits, then the pressure would be placed on EU officials: whether to continue with the U.S., or to reject U.S. anti-Russia policy, and to move forward by leaving NATO, and all that that entails?<\/p>\n If they then decide to stay with the U.S., after that \u201cF\u2014k the EU!\u201d and then this; then, the European countries are clearly just U.S. colonies. This would be far more embarrassing to those leaders than John Kerry would be embarrassed by his simply resigning from the U.S. State Department. It might even turn the tide and force the Ukrainian Government to follow through with all of its commitments under the Minsk II accords.<\/p>\n It would be the most effective thing for Kerry to do at this stage. But, it would lose him his position as a (now merely nominal) member of Obama\u2019s Cabinet.<\/p>\n The way this turns out will show a lot, about John Kerry. The nations of Europe already know everything they need to know about Barack Obama. If Kerry quits, he\u2019ll have respect around the world. If he stays, he\u2019ll be just another Colin Powell.<\/p>\n The ball is in Kerry\u2019s court, and everyone will see how he plays it \u2014 and what type of man he is (and isn\u2019t).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Obama Sidelines Kerry On Ukraine Policy by Eric Zuesse Obama Sidelines Kerry On Ukraine Policy On May 21st, I headlined “Secretary of State John Kerry v. His Subordinate Victoria Nuland, Regarding Ukraine,\u201d and quoted John Kerry\u2019s May 12th warning to … Continue reading