{"id":119568,"date":"2019-03-26T11:15:42","date_gmt":"2019-03-26T15:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=119568"},"modified":"2019-03-26T12:42:44","modified_gmt":"2019-03-26T16:42:44","slug":"theyre-really-promoting-the-first-gay-potus-candidate-like-theres-no-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=119568","title":{"rendered":"They&#8217;re really promoting the first gay POTUS candidate like there&#8217;s no tomorrow!"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>How Pete Buttigieg Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination<\/h1>\n<p><!--more-->By Gus Wezerek<br \/>\nfivethirtyeight.com<\/p>\n<article id=\"post-200011\" class=\"post-200011 fte_features type-fte_features status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry tag-2020-democratic-primary tag-2020-election tag-2020-kickoff tag-millennials tag-pete-buttigieg espn_verticals-politics vertical-politics topic-slug-2020-kickoff hovered\">\n<figure id=\"single-featured-image\" class=\"single-featured-image\">\n<div class=\"bug-container\"><picture class=\"featured-picture\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TOC-buttigieg-4x3.png?w=575\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TOC-buttigieg-4x3.png?w=575 1x, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TOC-buttigieg-4x3.png?w=1150 2x\" alt=\"TOC-buttigieg-4\u00d73\" \/><\/picture><\/div><figcaption class=\"caption featured-image-caption\">\n<p class=\"credits\">PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT \/ GETTY IMAGES<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"entry-content single-post-content\">\n<p>You\u2019d be forgiven for not knowing, or at least not knowing how to pronounce, Pete Buttigieg\u2019s last name (it\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Chas10Buttigieg\/status\/1074715082888790016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1074715082888790016&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2019%2F01%2F23%2Fpolitics%2Fpete-buttigieg-2020-president%2Findex.html\"><i>boot-uh-judge<\/i><\/a>). His political experience to date includes two terms as mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and \u2026 well, that\u2019s pretty much it.<\/p>\n<p>But on Wednesday Buttigieg became the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/how-julian-castro-could-win-the-2020-democratic-primary\/\">second mayor<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/south-bend-mayor-pete-buttigieg-announces-presidential-exploratory\/story?id=60543998\">throw his hat in<\/a>the 2020 Democratic presidential primary ring, and he\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/how-17-long-shot-presidential-contenders-could-build-a-winning-coalition\/\">might not be the last<\/a>. Buttigieg\u2019s age \u2014 he\u2019s 37 now, and would be the youngest U.S. president ever if elected \u2014 and Midwestern background could help him stand out against a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/how-kirsten-gillibrand-could-win-the-2020-democratic-primary\/\">quickly<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/how-elizabeth-warren-could-win-the-2020-democratic-primary\/\">crowding<\/a>\u00a0field of aspirants. But it\u2019s also possible that Buttigieg, who wasn\u2019t even included in a recent Politico\/Morning Consult\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2018\/11\/12\/poll-biden-bernie-beto-lead-2020-dems-983995\">poll of 20 potential candidates<\/a>, won\u2019t be able to get on voters\u2019 radars or build a base of support.<\/p>\n<p>On paper, Buttigieg is impressive. The son of an immigrant father from Malta, Buttigieg graduated from Harvard, earned a Rhodes Scholarship, and worked as a consultant at McKinsey before moving back home to Indiana at age 29 to become the mayor of South Bend, making him the youngest mayor of a city with more than 100,000 people. While still serving his first term, Buttigieg took a seven-month leave of office to serve with the Naval Reserve in Afghanistan in 2015. Less than a year later, Buttigieg came out as gay. Buttigieg\u2019s sexuality didn\u2019t stop South Bend voters from re-electing him to a second term with\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.in.gov\/apps\/sos\/election\/general\/general2015?page=district&amp;countyID=71&amp;officeID=32&amp;districtID=908&amp;candidate=\">more than 80 percent<\/a>\u00a0of the vote.<\/p>\n<p>All that success didn\u2019t go unnoticed. In a 2016\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/magazine\/2016\/11\/28\/obama-reckons-with-a-trump-presidency\">New Yorker interview<\/a>, Barack Obama name-dropped Buttigieg as a potential leading light for the party. And the New York Times (\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/06\/12\/opinion\/sunday\/the-first-gay-president.html\">The First Gay President?<\/a>\u201d) and Washington Post (\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/magazine\/wp\/2019\/01\/14\/feature\/could-pete-buttigieg-become-the-first-millennial-president\/?utm_term=.873e671a358f\">Could Pete Buttigieg Become the First Millennial President?<\/a>\u201d) have both published profiles of Buttigieg in the last three years.<\/p>\n<p>Now, though, Buttigieg faces the challenge of turning that attention and potential into a campaign. How might that happen?<\/p>\n<h2><b>How Buttigieg could win<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>When FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote about how\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/how-17-long-shot-presidential-contenders-could-build-a-winning-coalition\/\">Democratic longshots might build constituencies<\/a>\u00a0in 2020, he identified Millennials as Buttigieg\u2019s core base.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_200015\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-200015\" src=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/wezerek-buttigieg-1.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/wezerek-buttigieg-1.png?w=575 1x, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/wezerek-buttigieg-1.png?w=1150 2x\" alt=\"\" width=\"575\" height=\"358\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>If Buttigieg can become the preferred choice of young voters, though there\u2019s no guarantee of that, it would give him a powerful toe-hold in the race \u2014 Millennial voters could account for about a third of all primary voters in 2020. Even in his announcement video, you can see Buttigieg leaning into his youth and the need for a new generation of leadership:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I launched a presidential exploratory committee because it is a season for boldness and it is time to focus on the future. Are you ready to walk away from the politics of the past?<\/p>\n<p>Join the team at <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Xlqn10brgH\">https:\/\/t.co\/Xlqn10brgH<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/K6aeOeVrO7\">pic.twitter.com\/K6aeOeVrO7<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeteButtigieg\/status\/1088016937718874112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 23, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>An\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Chas10Buttigieg\/status\/1083904499788464128\">enthusiasm for board games<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/BaHnnrmFI_B\/\">Instagram-friendly rescue dog<\/a>\u00a0might be a start, but Buttigieg will need to make inroads with more than one group of voters to win. Where does he go after Millennials?<\/p>\n<p>One way forward might be to model his run after the 2016 bid by Bernie Sanders, a man who figured into the beginning of Buttigieg\u2019s political career. When Buttigieg was 18, he won a prestigious award for an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jfklibrary.org\/learn\/education\/profile-in-courage-essay-contest\/past-winning-essays\/2000-winning-essay-by-peter-buttigieg\">essay he had written about Sanders<\/a>. He cited the then-Vermont congressman as an \u201coutstanding and inspiring\u201d example of integrity, writing that \u201c\u2026 few others like him have the power to restore principle and leadership in Congress and to win back the faith of a voting public weary and wary of political opportunism.\u201d At the awards ceremony, Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts offered Buttigieg a summer internship in his office, which helped kickstart Buttigieg\u2019s career of public service.<\/p>\n<p>At this point, it\u2019s hard to pinpoint where Buttigieg falls on an ideological spectrum, but we do know he\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wndu.com\/content\/news\/Buttigieg-proposes-accelerated-minimum-wage-increase-for-city-employees-396574751.html\">pushed<\/a>\u00a0to raise minimum wages and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeteButtigieg\/status\/965396700511825920\">supports Medicare for All<\/a>. If the Sanders campaign were to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/01\/10\/us\/politics\/sanders-sexism-apology.html\">fail to launch or falter, Buttigieg could find an opening<\/a>. Just as Sanders ran on a platform focused on economic populism and working-class revival, Buttigieg can and will point to the role he played in leading South Bend\u2019s Rust Belt transformation (you can already see the theme in his announcement video).<\/p>\n<p>South Bend\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2013\/12\/21\/automobiles\/south-bend-ind-to-recall-studebakers-1963-departure.html\">lost thousands of jobs<\/a>\u00a0in 1963 when the the local Studebaker plant shut down. Between 1960 and 2012, when Buttigieg first took office, South Bend\u2019s population had decreased by more than 30,000 people. During his first term, Buttigieg set out to change that, promising to raze or refurbish 1,000 vacant houses in 1,000 days. Sixty-two days before the deadline, Buttigieg announced that the goal had been met.<a class=\"espn-footnote-link\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #008fd5; text-decoration: none; position: relative;\" href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/pete-buttigieg-2020-democratic-nomination\/#fn-1\" data-footnote-id=\"1\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.southbendtribune.com\/news\/local\/south-bend-reaches-vacant-and-abandoned-housing-goal\/article_9ec592d9-efec-52e4-b1ed-45f892ac18ae.html&quot;&gt;In the final tally&lt;\/a&gt; 512 houses were demolished, 378 repaired and 126 contracted for demolition&lt;\/p&gt; \"><sup id=\"ss-1\">1<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0He also oversaw a downtown revitalization project that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.southbendtribune.com\/news\/local\/how-much-has-smart-streets-driven-downtown-south-bend-s\/article_493dc5c2-cd5a-5c17-ac8c-254c5362504b.html\">some attributed<\/a>\u00a0to increased development in the area. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/factfinder.census.gov\/bkmk\/table\/1.0\/en\/ACS\/17_5YR\/DP05\/1600000US1871000\">latest Census estimates<\/a>\u00a0show a slow and steady increase in South Bend\u2019s population since 2013. How much of South Bend\u2019s upswing should be credited to Buttigieg is a more complicated question, but he\u2019ll certainly be able to point to the city\u2019s new trajectory as he makes a pitch to voters.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, as Nate pointed out, much of the Left (or at least the subset that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theweek.com\/articles\/716817\/inside-biggest-gathering-american-socialists-decades\">attends Democratic Socialists of America conventions<\/a>) is white and male, so someone like Buttigieg could package himself as a younger version of Sanders.<\/p>\n<p>Where Buttigieg goes next is a little trickier. There\u2019s no reason to think he wouldn\u2019t be acceptable to Party Loyalists. Along with support from Obama, former Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod has praised Buttigieg as having \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ibj.com\/articles\/65820-some-national-democrats-swoon-over-south-bend-mayor-pete-buttigieg\">limitless potential<\/a>.\u201d But if fellow-Midwesterners Amy Klobuchar or Sherrod Brown decide to run, Party Loyalists may support the more experienced politicians ahead of Buttigieg. And, of course, there\u2019s former Vice President Joe Biden.<\/p>\n<p>Buttigieg also has more experience appealing to minority communities than you might think. Forty-six percent of South Bend\u2019s population in 2017 was non-white, according to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/quickfacts\/fact\/table\/neworleanscitylouisiana,losangelescitycalifornia,sanantoniocitytexas,southbendcityindiana\/PST045218\">Census estimates<\/a>. OK, that number is more than 70 percent for Julian Castro (San Antonio), Eric Garcetti (Los Angeles) and Mitch Landrieu (New Orleans), but South Bend is more diverse than Minnesota or Massachusetts or Vermont.<\/p>\n<h2><b>The challenges Buttigieg faces<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Beyond standing out in a crowded field and finding footholds with key Democratic constituencies, Buttigieg\u2019s campaign also raises the question of whether Democrats are ready for an openly gay nominee.<\/p>\n<p>Among adults who identified as Democrats, 73 percent of respondents supported gay marriage, according to a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pewforum.org\/fact-sheet\/changing-attitudes-on-gay-marriage\/\">2017 Pew Research Center survey<\/a>. Independents were close behind at 70 percent. But the same research found support for gay marriage at 51 percent among black adults, an important part of the Democratic coalition. Support was even lower among Republicans at 40 percent. So you can expect to see \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-problem-with-electability\/\">electability<\/a>\u201d questions raised about Buttigieg. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/183713\/socialist-presidential-candidates-least-appealing.aspx\">last time Gallup tested<\/a>\u00a0Americans\u2019 willingness to vote for a \u201cgenerally well-qualified\u201d gay or lesbian candidate for president \u2014 way back in 2015, unfortunately \u2014 14 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of Americans overall said they would\u00a0<i>not<\/i>\u00a0be willing to vote for a such a candidate.<\/p>\n<section class=\"viz\">\n<header class=\"viz\">\n<h5 class=\"title\">Who would Americans NOT vote for in 2015?<\/h5>\n<p class=\"subtitle\">Share of people in 2015 survey who would not vote for a \u201cgenerally well-qualified\u201d person nominated from their own party if they had each of the following characteristics<\/p>\n<\/header>\n<table class=\"viz full\" data-carpenter-slug=\"bacon.identity0905.2\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th class=\"text\" colspan=\"1\"><\/th>\n<th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">DEMOCRAT<\/th>\n<th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">REPUBLICAN<\/th>\n<th class=\"number\" colspan=\"1\">OVERALL<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Socialist<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">38%<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">73%<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Atheist<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">35<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">55<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Muslim<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">27<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">54<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">38<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Evangelical Christian<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">33<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">14<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text highlight bold\">Gay or lesbian<\/td>\n<td class=\"number highlight bold\">14<\/td>\n<td class=\"number highlight bold\">38<\/td>\n<td class=\"number highlight bold\">24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Mormon<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">21<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">16<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Hispanic<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">6<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">9<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Woman<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">3<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">9<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Black<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">4<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">9<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Jewish<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">6<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">5<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\">Catholic<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">5<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">7<\/td>\n<td class=\"number\">6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<footer class=\"viz\">\n<p class=\"source\">SOURCE: GALLUP<\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<\/section>\n<p>Those numbers are likely lower now, but while many voters will surely rally to the idea of the first openly gay president, it\u2019d be naive to assume everyone will.<\/p>\n<p>Mayors also have a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.citylab.com\/equity\/2018\/02\/can-a-mayor-take-the-white-house\/553628\/\">dismal record<\/a>\u00a0when it comes to presidential races (see Rudy Giuliani in 2008). Plus there\u2019s a potentially large cohort of former municipal leaders in the 2020 candidate pool. \u201cI fixed potholes; I can fix America\u2019s potholes,\u201d could become a common refrain and a hard way to distinguish oneself as a candidate.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ornamental-rule\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<p>Given the odds against him, it\u2019s possible a presidential bid is another way for Buttigieg to win by losing. Buttigieg\u2019s first campaign was for state treasurer in 2010. He won\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.in.gov\/sos\/elections\/files\/2010_ELECTION_RESULTS_155618.pdf\">37.5 percent<\/a>\u00a0of the vote. But the experience\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.indianapolismonthly.com\/features\/pete-buttigieg-has-his-eye-on-the-prize\/\">raised his profile among Indiana Democrats<\/a>\u00a0and helped him lock up the South Bend mayoral race. His aborted run for Democratic National Committee chair served a similar function,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ibj.com\/articles\/65820-some-national-democrats-swoon-over-south-bend-mayor-pete-buttigieg\">generating<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/01\/05\/us\/pete-buttigieg-democratic-national-committee-chairman-race.html\">media<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/who-is-pete-buttigieg-dnc-chair-2017-2\">attention<\/a>\u00a0and signaling wider ambitions. Buttigieg may not get close to the nomination, but he\u2019ll begin to hone a national message and help normalize the idea of an openly gay president. That alone makes him worth keeping an eye on.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"video-placeholder videoplayer\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"abc-player\" src=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.abcnews.go.com\/video\/embed\/60597596?section=politics\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"mini-bio\">\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/pete-buttigieg-2020-democratic-nomination\/\">https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/pete-buttigieg-2020-democratic-nomination\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How Pete Buttigieg Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-119568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=119568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119568\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=119568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=119568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=119568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}