{"id":103128,"date":"2018-09-02T14:28:05","date_gmt":"2018-09-02T18:28:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=103128"},"modified":"2018-09-02T14:29:13","modified_gmt":"2018-09-02T18:29:13","slug":"south-carolina-ground-zero-for-the-democratic-nomination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/?p=103128","title":{"rendered":"SOUTH CAROLINA: Ground zero for the Democratic nomination"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more--><div id=\"attachment_103130\" style=\"width: 660px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/static.politico.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-103130\" class=\"wp-image-103130\" src=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/static.politico.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"433\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/static.politico.jpg 1160w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/static.politico-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/static.politico-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/static.politico-1024x682.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-103130\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sen. Kamala Harris is among potential 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls expected to visit South Carolina before this year\u2019s midterms. | Matt Slocum\/AP Photo<\/p><\/div><\/p>\n<h1>\u2018Whoever wins South Carolina will be the Democratic nominee\u2019<\/h1>\n<h3>Presidential prospects rethink primary election strategy for 2020.<\/h3>\n<p>By DAVID SIDERS<br \/>\nPolitico.com<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s the early state that delivered a decisive victory to Barack Obama in 2008. In 2016, it saved Hillary Clinton.<\/p>\n<p>In the wake of South Carolina\u2019s pivotal role in the past two competitive Democratic presidential contests, top Democrats are beginning to rethink their traditional approach to primary season, and focus their energy on the first Southern state to vote.<\/p>\n<div class=\"story-interrupt format-s pos-alpha predetermined fixed-story-third-paragraph\">\n<div class=\"interrupt-item ad\" aria-label=\"Advertisement\">\n<div id=\"pol-05\" class=\"ad-slot js-lazy-load flex vertical \" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>It\u2019s a tacit acknowledgment of the essential role African American voters play within the Democratic Party as much as it is a nod to recent primary election results. With the racially diverse Obama coalition increasingly viewed as the key to the party\u2019s future, the two early states that have historically overshadowed South Carolina \u2014 Iowa and New Hampshire \u2014 are suddenly looking outmoded to many Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe primary process in selecting a candidate will now not be determined by the Iowas and New Hampshires,\u201d said former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who ran for president in 2008. \u201cIt will be a long, drawn out affair, and the first big test will be South Carolina to see who is strongest among the party\u2019s base, the African American base of the Democratic Party.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The floodgates are poised to open within weeks. In early jockeying ahead of the 2020 primary, Joe Biden, Deval Patrick and Eric Holder are all expected to travel to South Carolina before November\u2019s midterm elections. Kamala Harris is likely to visit. Eric Garcetti is scheduled to return to the state in late September, and Terry McAuliffe is hosting a fundraiser in Washington for James Smith, South Carolina\u2019s Democratic gubernatorial nominee.<\/p>\n<p>Former Vice President Joe Biden has lent his endorsement not only to Smith, but also to Dick Harpootlian, a former state Democratic Party chairman running for a state Senate seat.<\/p>\n<p>In part, the candidates\u2019 early focus on South Carolina reflects the path Obama and Clinton took to the Democratic nomination. The state helped to cement their credentials with black voters, a crucial demographic both in South Carolina and in the states whose elections will quickly follow.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"story-related cl-l db \">\n<aside class=\"content-group inline-module-morning-score\">\n<section class=\"speedbump layout-bi\">\n<div class=\"speedbump-item pos-alpha\">\n<div class=\"spotlight spotlight--flex\">\n<div class=\"summary link-alt fx1\">\n<h2>Morning Score newsletter<\/h2>\n<p>Your guide to the permanent campaign \u2014 weekday mornings, in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"speedbump-item pos-beta\">\n<div class=\"js-tealium-newsletter\" data-subscription-module=\"newsletter_inline_standard_Morning Score - POLITICO\">\n<div class=\"dari-frame dari-frame-loaded\" data-insertion-mode=\"replace\" data-extra-form-data=\"_frame.path=5c388a2e37218b65f1db610df3d5c42a&amp;_frame.name=inline-module-morning-score-full-0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b9860000\">\n<form class=\"simple-signup simple-signup--stack\" action=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2018\/09\/01\/south-carolina-democratic-nominee-elections-806104?\" method=\"post\" target=\"inline-module-morning-score-full-0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b9860000\">\n<fieldset><label class=\"simple-signup__label\" for=\"i038ba20fac074bd299839a5c23a0a602\"><b class=\"icon icon-mail\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/b><span class=\"icon-text\">Email<\/span><\/label><input id=\"i038ba20fac074bd299839a5c23a0a602\" class=\"simple-signup__input \" name=\"subscribeEmail\" required=\"\" type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder=\"Your email\u2026\" aria-label=\"Enter Your Email\" \/><button class=\"button type-link simple-signup__submit\" type=\"submit\">Sign Up<\/button><\/fieldset>\n<\/form>\n<p class=\"legal-disclaimer\">By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/aside>\n<\/aside>\n<p>By mid-March alone in 2016, the presidential primary campaign had already run through 10 states with black primary turnout exceeding 25 percent, according to CNN exit polls. In 2020, North Carolina \u2014 a key swing state with black turnout of 32 percent two years ago \u2014 is moving its primary to early March, as well.<\/p>\n<p>Iowa and New Hampshire are demographically among the whitest states in the nation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou have to think about where the party is now,\u201d said Jaime Harrison, associate chair of the Democratic National Committee and a former South Carolina state party chair. \u201cYou\u2019ve got some people who are still using a 1980s model for running for president, which is \u2018I just need to camp out in Iowa and New Hampshire \u2026 The Democratic Party now looks very different than it did in the 80s or 90s, or even the 2000s. The question is, how are you going to appeal to people of color, which are now the backbone of this party?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Harrison added, \u201cThe best way to test that is in South Carolina \u2026 I think that\u2019s going to be really, really important component of the presidential race this time around.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Rev. Leah Daughtry, a longtime Democratic operative who served as CEO of the 2008 and 2016 Democratic National Convention committees, said, \u201cGiven the demographic changes in the country and the growing activism of African American voters, I think over time \u2026 there is a growing idea among the party regulars that Iowa, New Hampshire are not demographically representative of who the party is.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She said, \u201cAt what point does the weight of their significance shift? I think the perception is shifting now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In addition to South Carolina\u2019s relatively small size and inexpensive cost of advertising, the state\u2019s Republican-heavy politics have afforded potential 2020 candidates an opening to help underfunded Democrats within the state without appearing overtly solicitous of attention for their own ambitions.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"story-related\">\n<article class=\"story-frag format-sm\">\n<figure class=\"thumb\">\n<div class=\"fig-graphic\"><a class=\"js-tealium-tracking\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2018\/08\/31\/milwaukee-democratic-national-convention-pitch-805493\" target=\"_top\" data-tracking=\"mpos=inside body&amp;mid=ParentheticalModule&amp;lindex=Unknown&amp;lcol=Unknown\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" lazy-loaded\" src=\"http:\/\/static.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/70788cf\/2147483647\/legacy_thumbnail\/90x49%3E\/quality\/90\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F7b%2F24%2Fe49f7747449f9070a42406e639ee%2F180831-milwaukee-harley-773.jpg\" alt=\"People gather in Milwaukee for the 115th Harley Davidson anniversary celebration. \" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<div class=\"summary\">\n<header>\n<p class=\"category\"><a class=\"js-tealium-tracking\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/elections\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-tracking=\"mpos=inside body&amp;mid=ParentheticalModule&amp;lindex=Unknown&amp;lcol=Unknown\">ELECTIONS<\/a><\/p>\n<h3><a class=\"js-tealium-tracking\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2018\/08\/31\/milwaukee-democratic-national-convention-pitch-805493\" target=\"_top\" data-tracking=\"mpos=inside body&amp;mid=ParentheticalModule&amp;lindex=Unknown&amp;lcol=Unknown\">Milwaukee\u2019s pitch to Democrats: Try visiting Wisconsin this time<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<footer class=\"meta\">\n<div><\/div>\n<p class=\"byline\">By\u00a0<a class=\"url fn\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/staff\/natasha-korecki\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"author\" data-tracking=\"mpos=inside body&amp;mid=ParentheticalModule&amp;lindex=Unknown&amp;lcol=Unknown\">NATASHA KORECKI<\/a><\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/aside>\n<p>That red-state status is one reason candidates are focusing now, in the midterm election year, on South Carolina \u2014 and not on California, a massive, delegate-heavy state that is moving earlier in the primary season in 2020, but where top-of-the-ticket Democrats do not need assistance.<\/p>\n<p>It is also far less expensive to campaign in South Carolina, which is more reliant on a brand of retail politics that can benefit from months of networking on the ground.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you want to do old school, back-to-the-basics campaign stuff, it\u2019s hard,\u201d said Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist who worked for Clinton\u2019s campaign in 2016. \u201cRelationships and knowing the territory really matters in South Carolina.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this year, Biden, who has cultivated extensive ties in South Carolina, endorsed Smith in a video message at the state Democratic Party\u2019s convention. Garcetti, the Los Angeles mayor, is scheduled to keynote a fundraiser for the Charleston County Democratic Party on Sept. 23, after previously raising money for the state party.<\/p>\n<p>California Rep. Adam Schiff, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan and former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu have appeared in the state, as has Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon. Maryland Rep. John Delaney, who has already announced his presidential campaign, traveled to South Carolina in April, before going on to visit all 99 counties in Iowa.<\/p>\n<p>Garcetti adviser Bill Carrick, a South Carolina native who managed Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt\u2019s 1988 presidential campaign, said he expects Iowa to \u201celiminate some people who won\u2019t go to South Carolina or, if they go there, they won\u2019t be taken seriously.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But in an unwieldy candidate field where everyone \u201cother than Sen. [Bernie] Sanders and Vice President Biden, the rest of them are going to be scrambling to be in the top tier,\u201d Carrick said South Carolina presents an opportunity for a candidate to distinguish himself or herself in a diverse but relatively small state.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not a mega-state, so people can go forward and communicate there,\u201d he said. \u201cI would not underestimate its influence in this process.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"story-related\">\n<article class=\"story-frag format-sm\">\n<figure class=\"thumb\">\n<div class=\"fig-graphic\"><a class=\"js-tealium-tracking\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2018\/08\/30\/deval-patrick-2020-congressional-campaign-push-805495\" target=\"_top\" data-tracking=\"mpos=inside body&amp;mid=ParentheticalModule&amp;lindex=Unknown&amp;lcol=Unknown\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" lazy-loaded\" src=\"http:\/\/static.politico.com\/dims4\/default\/de2e482\/2147483647\/legacy_thumbnail\/90x49%3E\/quality\/90\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fab%2F8d%2F37fbea7c4874b2c7bb2309565a35%2F180830-deval-patrick-gty-773.jpg\" alt=\" Deval Patrick.\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<div class=\"summary\">\n<header>\n<h3><a class=\"js-tealium-tracking\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2018\/08\/30\/deval-patrick-2020-congressional-campaign-push-805495\" target=\"_top\" data-tracking=\"mpos=inside body&amp;mid=ParentheticalModule&amp;lindex=Unknown&amp;lcol=Unknown\">Amid 2020 speculation, Deval Patrick supporters plan fall push<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<footer class=\"meta\">\n<div><\/div>\n<p class=\"byline\">By\u00a0<a class=\"url fn\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/staff\/kyle-cheney\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"author\" data-tracking=\"mpos=inside body&amp;mid=ParentheticalModule&amp;lindex=Unknown&amp;lcol=Unknown\">KYLE CHENEY<\/a><\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/aside>\n<p>While Iowa and New Hampshire will likely remain \u201cmake or break\u201d states for long-shot candidates, said former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, higher profile candidates will find that \u201cSouth Carolina [comes] pretty fast after New Hampshire, so you could certainly regenerate your chances by doing well in South Carolina.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHillary barely won in Iowa, right? She got clobbered in New Hampshire,\u201d said Rendell, a former DNC chairman. \u201cBut she won South Carolina, and that really boosted her.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He said, \u201cI don\u2019t think anybody can take the Bernie Sanders route to the nomination, which is, Bernie Sanders got wiped out in the South.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At its recent meeting in Chicago, the Democratic National Committee adopted rules confirming Iowa, once again, as the first caucus state in 2020. In a prepared statement, the Iowa Democratic Party chairman, Troy Price, called hosting the caucuses an \u201cawesome responsibility.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The crush of media attention on Iowa and New Hampshire, the first primary state, is historically so significant that competing there will be instrumental to candidates\u2019 ability to gain \u2014 or keep \u2014 national attention early in the primary process. And the significance of states that follow, including South Carolina, could sharply decline if any candidate wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, gelling support early in the nominating process.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[But] assuming you have a split between Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina becomes critical,\u201d said Bob Shrum, a longtime political strategist who served on multiple Democratic presidential campaigns.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Before California and its massive delegate haul, he said, \u201cSouth Carolina would be the next signal, and primary voters are always looking for signals.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In South Carolina, Seawright puts that sentiment in spiritual terms.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnyone who\u2019s thinking about, or flirting with, the idea of running for president in the Democratic primary in 2020 understands two things,\u201d he said. &#8220;The road to heaven and the road to the White House runs through South Carolina, and very likely, whoever wins South Carolina will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2018\/09\/01\/south-carolina-democratic-nominee-elections-806104\">http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2018\/09\/01\/south-carolina-democratic-nominee-elections-806104<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-103128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=103128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103128\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=103128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=103128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation2012.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=103128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}